Washington, D.C. — After nearly three months in office, President Umaru Yar'Adua is promising big improvements for Nigeria's economy, but growth has been hampered by a crippling strike and continuous crime and kidnappings in the country's oil-rich Niger Delta. Security is "the major issue" facing Nigeria today, according to Nnamdi Obasi, the International Crisis Group's senior analyst for West Africa. He spoke to Katy Gabel.
After April's controversial general elections, what is the mood like in the Nigerian capital?
I think that the mood in Abuja is … very sober. In the immediate aftermath of the elections, there were protests against the way that [they] were conducted. I think that in Nigeria you didn't really have an election … It's the most bizarre thing that I have ever seen in my life.
So what is the government trying to do to overcome the negativity surrounding the election?
The government that came out of that process is compromised by a deficit of legitimacy in the eyes of the people. It is not seen as a true product of a democratic process. The government has been trying to do everything possible to buy some legitimacy, first of all by trying to bring on board the opposition candidates and their parties to form what they call a Government of National Unity. But … we still have reservations about it because to some extent it's more about sharing of posts and ministries and offices than marrying the platforms and agendas of the different parties.
Some pundits have commented on the international community's passive reaction after the elections. For example, President Yar'Adua was invited to the Group of Eight [G8] Summit. How is he really being received?
I think that the reports of the observer missions were very well-received in Nigeria as truly reflective of what happened on the ground. But then there was a sense of disappointment that … none of the reports gave a final verdict saying "cancel the elections and rerun the process." I did take up that matter with the head of the team from the NDI [the National Democratic Institute of the U.S.] - Madeleine Albright [a former U.S. Secretary of State]. She said "we have observed, and we have reported what we have observed – as to what is to be done eventually… that depends on the Nigerian people." I think that the international community, to some extent, was waiting for some signals of sustained protests from the Nigerian people. But because the opposition was divided, it was weak.
Having said that, there is also a sense of disillusionment in Nigeria with the seeming haste with which the international community embraced the [new] government, with the G8 summit and all of the envoys that they have sent. There is the feeling that double standards are being applied. If some other country - perhaps Zimbabwe - conducted that kind of election, it would certainly not have been acceptable to the international community, and that Nigeria is being let off very lightly - with just a tap on the wrist.
What does all of this boil down to? You'll find some people who will probably think … it's just an oil issue. The international community believes that as long as we have a semblance of government in Nigeria that allows the oil business to go on, they are okay with that. Nigerians will be left sort out their own problems.
What has the new government done so far?
Well, the president has said his priority will be the economy: the economy first, the economy second, and the economy third - so you'd expect that there are going to be very ambitious economic development plans. But we haven't seen the outline of those plans yet.
He said very good things about improving the power [energy] sector and improving other sectors and so forth... but it's more or less in the nature of similar statements that you've heard before. We need to see a plan that is different from what was done before and procedures by which that plan will be implemented. He did say that he was going to declare a state of emergency in the power sector and that in [his] first 100 days in office he would [release] a plan for dealing with the power sector. Now that the ministers have just been appointed … I don't know how quickly we can get that plan together.
The Niger Delta is becoming a major story in the western media. Are the Niger Delta stories - especially those about kidnappings - overblown in the media here? Are we getting a real picture of what's going on?
I don't think that they are overblown at all. I think even at the local level, there is similar media coverage of the security issues. [They] are very critical and seem to be deepening as the days go by.
Even though Yar'Adua said he was going to consider the Niger Delta a priority, there has not been, from the government, a definite program for what [it] wants to do in the Delta. The indications that he has given sound good, but they seem to be a little different than what the people of the Niger Delta are saying.
What do Delta residents want and how do you think they can get it?
They seem more concerned … about greater ownership and control of the resources from their region. At the moment, the constitution guarantees them 13 percent of the revenues coming from oil. They have - over [several] years - been arguing for between 25 and 50 percent, depending on who you are speaking with. The political reform conference last year that produced proposals for a constitutional amendment actually agreed on 18 percent. So… if you could resurrect that bill… and address that aspect that talks about increasing the revenue, I think that would meet their demands halfway and would pacify a lot of the agitation.
As long as you continue in the path of a master plan by which you give [a determined amount of revenue] to the Niger Delta, they won't think that is a sustainable process. It has to be in the constitution rather than in the [administration's] master plan, which might not be accepted by the next administration, so that the whole process doesn't unravel…
I would say that the Niger Delta is in a fairly delicate situation. It could get better if proactive steps are taken. It could also get worse if there is a lot of delay in seeing progress in a positive direction. There is also now, in addition to the legitimate demands and struggles of militants and the people, an element of criminality, pure and simple, that has nothing to do with either demands for environmental mediation, economic empowerment, political representation...
Among the militants, do we have a situation where the grievances really matter or is the Delta turning into a place where criminals and militants are using this as an excuse to justify their crimes?
In the case of the British girl last month – the three-year-old girl who was taken - there is no economic or political or environmental demand that can justify that kind of action. There was a lot of outrage about that in Nigeria, including [among] the major militant groups. They all denounced it… [it] was a purely criminal act to extort money. I think that also [some of the] major groups [realize] that that kind of activity now tends to damage their case because it denies them sympathy [that] they had built up over time.
If you have a master plan for economic development, and you have a political plan for constitutional reforms, and you have a plan for environmental remediation and so on, you must now begin to focus seriously on a plan for security. Otherwise, you'll finish dealing with the core issues, and you'll find that there is still a residual security issue. The security issue is not really the marginal issue now, it is the major issue. And I don't think that it is overblown in the foreign press.
What can the government do to address the so-called purely criminal elements?
The two things that we think the government can do. First, make some progress in addressing the core issues. That pacifies a lot of people and gives them the sense that their demands are being addressed genuinely. That, to some extent, isolates the criminal elements and denies them of whatever public collaboration they used to have as a cover for the operations.
Secondly, you must deal seriously with your security operations. The military is deployed in the region under what is called the Joint Task Force for the Niger Delta, but it's in a difficult situation [because they] are not just engaged in curbing criminal and other violent activities. [They] are also conducting what they call a "hearts and minds" campaign in order to buy support from the people in the Niger Delta. So you really can't go out with whatever military might that you have. You're not fighting an enemy. It's your own nationals that you are dealing with. You don't want to take actions that will lead to casualties that will damage the government's case.
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I think that there are also serious deficiencies in the capacity to police the Niger Delta. The police system is centralized. We have a single, central police force directed from Abuja. In terms of local initiative, it is constrained. It is in demand, it is under-funded, [and] it is under-equipped.
The police don't have the resources necessary to police the Delta?
Yes… that's why, most of the time, you don't find them being able to preempt any of these attacks. Even when hostages are taken, sometimes it is difficult to find anyone within the secret services who has a [clue] as to where the hostages are being kept. It's the local people who bring information…
The Nigerian government has to improve on the capacity of its secret services and their mode of operation. And then they will be able to deal with the security issue more effectively.
Is that possible in the federal system?
We don't think so. We think that there must be greater devolution and control and deployment of police services.
In Bayelsa state, for instance, they have had a local secretariat arrangement that is called Bayelsa Volunteers. It is a volunteer position for local people, but it's funded by the state government. And because it's local people, they know the terrain very well, they know the creeks very well and they have information of that sort. They have been quite effective in limiting the activities of criminals in their area.
They have not been completely effective, but I think that they have done better than having a police force that is directly from Abuja, trained for putting down riots and land-based crime. The police have… equipment for land operations. How many speed boats, for instance, do they have? How many divers and swimmers and so on do you have in the police to be able to operate in the creeks and the swamps of the Niger Delta?
You would eventually have to fall back an agreement with the local communities. We think that a decentralized police system may be more effective in dealing with these kinds of things than a centralized, unitary system that we have now.
