Washington, DC — Reflecting fears that Cote d'Ivoire is spiraling towards all-out civil war, African and world leaders have made strong statements about the escalating violence.
Alassane Ouattara, a former Ivorian prime minister and former senior International Monetary Fund official, was certified as winner of November's presidential runoff by the country's electoral commission and the United Nations. But Laurent Gbagbo, who has been president since 2000, claimed victory in what his supporters say was a flawed vote-counting process and has refused to step down.
Five African presidents designated by the African Union (AU) to mediate the crisis decided during a meeting Friday in Nouakchott, Mauritania to invite the two rivals to a summit in Nigeria later this month. The panel issued an "urgent appeal" to the rivals "to show utmost restraint" and to end "media campaigns inciting hatred and violence."
The French foreign ministry issued a call for "a credible and impartial commission of inquiry" under United Nations auspices into an attack Thursday on protesters in Abidjan who had rallied to demand that Gbagbo step aside. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton harshly criticized Gbagbo for violence against Cote d'Ivoire's people, including the attack on "unarmed women demonstrators that left seven dead."
Clinton's statement, issued late Friday, accused Gbagbo of "a callous disregard for human life and the rule of law, preying on the unarmed and the innocent". Clinton called on Gbagbo to "step aside immediately in the name of peace."
During an interview at the State Department as Clinton's statement was being drafted, the administration's senior Africa policymaker, Assistant Secretary Johnnie Carson, compared the killings in Abidjan to recent violence directed at pro-democracy protesters in Libya.
"We were absolutely appalled when military forces loyal to Gbagbo fired on innocent women, peacefully protesting in the streets of Abidjan," he said. "The longer the Gbagbo regime clings to power, the longer the prospect of violence of the type we saw yesterday in Abidjan."
Gbagbo's spokesperson denied that his security forces were responsible for the seven deaths that came during a march supporting Ouattara in the Abidjan neighborhood of Abobo. The spokesperson said the reports were an attempt to "trigger emotion" and interfere with the work of the AU presidential panel.
Carson said "all of the international community" needs to stand behind the UN Security Council declaration of Alassane Ouattara as the election victor. He also appealed to the African Union to "maintain a strong consensus behind this position."
"Economic sanctions are starting to bite," Carson said. "The Gbagbo government is running out of money and financial resources, [and] diesel and oil supplies are starting to run low." Gbagbo is facing increased political and diplomatic isolation, and this is also starting to have an impact, Carson said.
But the strong, unified stance against Gbagbo, adopted initially by the regional Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) and backed by the African Union, has become less firm. Gbagbo has been able to obtain financing and supplies, despite sanctions imposed by United States and other governments.
"A small number of countries" support Gbagbo, Carson said. But he said he hopes they will realize that their actions contribute to "prolongation of the crisis" as well as "an upswing in violence and a downward economic spiral of this once-promising state".
Ecowas endorsed the certification of Ouattara's election in November, with strong support from Nigeria, Senegal, Kenya and Burkina Faso, and in December threatened to use force if Gbagbo failed to cede the presidency. But Ghana's President John Atta Mills said in early January that his country would not take sides, while South Africa, Angola and Zimbabwe have tilted in Gbagbo's direction, along with Cape Verde, Gambia and Uganda.
A report issued last week by the International Crisis Group warned that Cote d'Ivoire "is on the verge of a new civil war." Tragedy can be avoided only if Africa and the international community "stand firm" behind Ouattara "and he launches an initiative for reconciliation and a transitional government of national unity."
Carson said he hopes the panel of African presidents can help bring about the peace that Ivorians "want and deserve". Following t he Nouakchott meeting, which was hosted by Mauritania's Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, the presidents had been expected to travel to Abidjan, as they did last month in an unsuccessful effort to find a solution. Instead, they issued invitations to the Ivorian rivals to attend a meeting, which is expected to convene in Addis Ababa later this week,
The AU presidential panel includes Jacob Zuma of South Africa, Blaise Compaore of Burkina Faso, Chad's Idriss Deby and Tanzania's Jakaya Kikwete. The leaders noted the rising death toll "as well as the escalation of the spirit of confrontation." They asked the parties "to cease all forms of hostilities" and appealed for an end to Gbagbo's blockade of the Golf Hotel, where Ouattara is protected by UN forces.
Along with Gbagbo and Ouattara, the presidents also extended a summit invitation to Paul Yao N'Dre, chairman of Cote d'Ivoire's Constitutional Council. It was the Council's December decision - overturning poll results announced by the nation's electoral commission and declaring Gbagbo the winner - that helped spark the current impasse.
Rep. Donald Payne, ranking Democrat and previous chair of the House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health and Human Rights, last week compared the situation in Cote d'Ivoire to the pro-democracy campaigns taking place in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya. "The world must not turn a blind eye to their struggles or wait until the country plunges into civil war to respond to this crisis," he wrote in an AllAfrica guest column.
The UN refugee agency UNHCR warned on Friday that "getting access to the needy was becoming increasingly difficult." UN personnel have been targeted by pro-Gbagbo forces, complicating the work of aid personnel. "In this environment, it is extremely problematic for humanitarian agencies to be operational and reach the displaced," said UNHCR representative Jacques Franquin.
Insecurity has spread throughout Abidjan and to the west of the country, the agency reported. The unrest has boosted the refugee flow to neighboring Liberia, where 32,800 new arrivals have been recorded since February 24, almost doubling the 40,000 previously registered since the post-election trouble began in November.
In an AllAfrica interview last month, Liberian Foreign Minister Togo McIntosh said the influx was overwhelming available resources and threatening the country's fragile security. Liberia itself, under the presidency of Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, is struggling to rebuild its economy and its destroyed infrastructure after nearly two decades of conflict.
That era, which included the brutality in neighboring Sierra Leone, where insurgents routinely hacked off the limbs of civilians, saw weapons crossing borders to engulf the region, including into Cote d'Ivoire, in armed crime and political violence. The dangers of a new intensification of instability is worrying experienced observers, raising questions about the African presidents' decision not to return to Abidjan for talks with Gbagbo and Ouattara.
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That decision may be rooted in the rising tensions and escalating conflict, according to a senior African diplomat. Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, a former Mauritanian foreign minister and long-time ambassador, helped mediate a cease-fire in the Ivorian civil war in 2004, while serving as the chief United Nations official in West Africa. He said high-level visits under certain conditions can encourage violence, especially by those who fear they will lose ground if negotiations succeed.
Ould-Abdallah recently retired from his United Nations post as the Secretary-General's Special Representative for Somalia. In an interview Saturday with AllAfrica, he said that African leadership is essential for resolving the crisis, with Nigeria playing a central role. Like the United States in world affairs, he says, Nigeria is the "indispensable player" in Africa.
Calling the situation in Cote d'Ivoire "totally unacceptable" and a set-back for the region, he said west Africa has made great strides. He cited successful recent elections in Ghana, Mali, Guinea, and Niger, where people "refused" an effort by a leader to make himself 'president-for-life.'
Mamadou Tandja, who led Niger for a decade, was ousted in a popularly supported February 2010 military intervention after he announced his intention to extend his tenure. A civilian government is slated to take office following a presidential run-off on March 12.
Ambassador Ould-Abdallah said that a danger in Cote d'Ivoire, which is in its second decade of turmoil, is that crisis can become seen as the norm, as has happened in Somalia. "A crisis should never be normal," the diplomat said.
