Boko Haram is likely to escalate attacks during Eid.

Nigeria: severe risk of IED and shooting attacks against Muslims and entertainment spots in the north and Middle Belt

On October 23, Nigeria's police chief announced the deployment of extra officers across the country, following warning of a attacks by the Islamist militant group Boko Haram during Eid celebrations beginning on October 26.

The risk of attacks by Boko Haram is severe around the festive period when large numbers of people visit entertainment spots. The group is likely to target prayer grounds where there are religious leaders who are perceived to support the government against Boko Haram.

Attacks are more likely in prayer grounds or mosques in Maiduguri, the group's stronghold, and entertainment spots in towns including Abuja, Kaduna and Kano. The risk of attacks in major cities in the south including Lagos, Port Harcourt and Enugu is extremely low. Attacks are likely to be in the form of drive-by shootings against small groups or IED (improvised explosive device) attacks against large public gathering, raising risks of death and injury to bystanders and worshippers

Exclusive Analysis is a specialist intelligence company that forecasts commercially relevant political and violent risks worldwide. They leverage their source network and methodology to produce accurate and actionable forecasts. Their global network of 200 expert analysts and 1,000 sources reports risk-relevant, specialist information to their core London-based team. Their clients are from a broad range of industries including insurance, banking and asset management, energy, mining, aviation, shipping and telecoms.