Murtala Touray — The recent arrest of 14 suspected militants planning to bomb landmarks in Lagos suggests southern Nigeria could increasingly become a target for attacks.
On 21 March, 14 suspected militant Islamists were arrested on Aromire Street in Ijora, Lagos, suspected of plotting a series of coordinated attacks to be carried out in Lagos.
AK-47 rifles and a cache of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) were seized. This was the first time a plot of this scale had been uncovered in a major city in the south.
The likely infiltration of militant Islamists into southern cities including Lagos and Port Harcourt poses an elevated risk of IED attacks designed to cause mass casualties in public places, including shopping malls and petroleum tank farms such as those in Apapa.
Information obtained by security agencies during interrogation of the 14 suspects revealed plans of coordinated targeted IED attacks on 16 landmarks in Lagos.
Cities in the south are likely to be highly aspirational targets for militant groups, whose usual area of operation is the north, as they look to demonstrate that the south is not beyond their reach - and, by extension, to undermine the administration of President Goodluck Jonathan.
However, the risk of a militant Islamist attack in Lagos and the south is lower than in the north. Pre-emptive raids by security forces and the group's lack of a broad local support networks among ethnic groups as well as northerners (who are afraid of reprisal attacks) living in the south mitigates the risk.
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Western nationals working or resident in Lagos face a moderate risk of being kidnapped by Islamist groups. Kidnapping in Lagos is more likely to be opportunistic and carried out by local criminal gangs. A UK national kidnapped on 23 March in Victoria Island, an affluent residential area, was released after three days in captivity.
In the two-year outlook, Islamist militants are increasingly likely to carry out IED attacks in southern cities on public spaces such as shopping centres, Christian places of worship, and predominantly Christian communities.
By Murtala Touray, Senior Africa Forecaster at Exclusive Analysis, recently acquired by IHS.
Exclusive Analysis, recently acquired by IHS (NYSE: IHS) is a specialist intelligence company that forecasts commercially relevant political and violent risks worldwide.
They leverage their source network and methodology to produce accurate and actionable forecasts. Their global network of 200 expert analysts and 1,000 sources reports risk-relevant, specialist information to their core London-based team.
