President Bouteflika is unlikely to run for a fourth term. However, following resignations and in-party tensions, his successor is far from clear.
For weeks now, speculation has been rife on whether the Algerian President, the 76-year old Abdelaziz Bouteflika, will run for a fourth consecutive term in April 2014.
On 27 April, he was flown to a hospital in Paris after suffering a minor stroke. A number of official communiqués have confirmed he is recovering well and expect him to return to Algiers very soon. But he has yet to resume his presidential duties.
This latest setback might not prevent him from pursuing his mandate until next year, but his health has been steadily deteriorating since 2005, when he was hospitalised after developing a ulcer. What, then, are the likely scenarios ahead of the next election?
A tired Bouteflika
There remains the possibility that Bouteflika could be deemed unfit to serve by his peers. According to Article 88 of the Algerian Constitution, members of the Parliament can declare the president unable to govern, provided there is a two-thirds majority consensus.
This would leave the Senate president in charge of the country for 45 days. If after this period, the president is still declared unable to govern, the Senate president can pursue his 'presidential' responsibility for a maximum of 60 days until new elections must be held - in which he is not permitted to run.
Yet Abdelaziz Bouteflika is unlikely to run for the next presidential election for other reasons. After 15 years of presidency, he does not seem to be motivated by an additional mandate.
Last year's legislative elections in Setif - where he fervently proclaimed 'tab jnana', that the current generation must leave office for the next one to take over - are the clearest indication of this.
There are rumours that Bouteflika is psychologically tired, and disappointed by the numerous scandals tarnishing Algeria's image - particularly the allegations of corruption levelled at a deal involving the national energy giant, Sonatrach, former Minister of Energy Chakib Khelil and Italian and Canadian companies.
A one horse race?
Apart from former Prime Minister Ahmed Benbitour, who has officially declared that he would run for the 2014 presidential race, no other candidate has formally announced their intentions to run for the 2014 elections. Therefore, what largely remains is guesswork.
However, two further contenders may arise in the coming next months. The first is current Prime Minister Abdelmalek Sellal, who, due to his friendly and positive demeanour, enjoys genuine popularity amongst the population. However, Sellal does not have the support of any particular party.
Mouloud Hamrouche, a technocrat and former Prime Minister, could also be among the contenders. But some twenty years in the political wilderness means that canvassing support may prove difficult.
This finely-poised situation leaves the door open for other candidates. Broadly speaking, Algeria's political landscape comprises two main parties (FLN and RND) and four less-dominant parties (FFS, RCD, PT and MSP). There are 47 parties registered in total.
Leading the FLN
Following the removal of presidential hopeful Abdelaziz Belkhadem from his position as Secretary General of the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party in January, Abderrezak Bouhara was perceived by many the natural successor to lead the party until its next congress in 2015.
However, his death in February has left the FLN short of charismatic leaders for the next presidential elections.
Since Belkhadem's ousting, internal party disputes have led to a political deadlock. Insinuations of disloyalty and polluted discourses are preventing members from not only electing a new Secretary General but also putting forward a presidential candidate.
In this uneasy political climate, three main figures appear to be the favourite to take the leadership of the FLN and eventually become presidential candidates:
Mohamed Boukhalfa, has an excellent knowledge of the party and its dynamics which have served him well over the years.
However, despite support, Boukhalfa is 79 years old and does not seem physically fit enough to take up the job. Although he has much experience within the party, he may lack the authority and influence to be a serious contender.
Amar Saadani, is seen as the businessmen's choice. He enjoys strong links with the cadres of the presidential palace, which could eventually prove to be a key support base.
Yet, his adversaries never miss the opportunity to remind him that of the past corruption scandals he has reportedly been involved in.
The final option would be Abdelaziz Ziari, a medical doctor and current Minister of Health. He initially signalled his presidential ambitions when he addressed a letter to Bouteflika to his authorisation for candidacy.
However, he does not seem to enjoy total support from within the party and its different clans, despite the fact that they agree that Ziari has enormous qualities and he is one of the most competent party members. With the FLN's position unclear, could the RND steal a march on their rivals?
The RND's prospects
Since former Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia resigned from his post as Secretary General last year, the position in National Democratic for Rally (RND) - the second largest in the country - has not been filled.
The party's congress is due to take place sometime between June and September this year, when a new Secretary General will be elected.
Despite this resignation, Ouyahia could well be a solid frontrunner in the presidential race. He may not be liked by the general public but he is nonetheless respected for his ability; he has a strong and efficient political network, support amongst the political fringes and tremendous political experience.
Importantly, while all the other potential candidates are in their late sixties and early seventies (apart from Sellal who is 64), Ouyahia is aged 61. In a country where half of the population is less than 30 years old, this could prove an important parameter for many voters.
The best of the rest
However, some analysts and political observers have recently suggested that former president Liamine Zeroual might be a viable option. If he does succeed Bouteflika, he is seen as capable of uniting all components of the Algerian society.
Zeroual is widely seen a man of integrity, devoted to his country, with support from national institutions such as parties and the army. He is the only Algerian president to independently resign before the end of his term.
Commentators argue that Zeroual could therefore be the man to govern Algeria through a tough transitional period of about two years, which would allow other parties, civil society groups and labour and trade associations to redevelop.
This might be a safe option, one that would satisfy a large number of people in Algeria, but Zeroual does not seem willing to return to the helm.
Although other parties have gained some political currency - the Rally for Culture and Democracy (RCD), the Socialist Front Forces (FFS), the Workers' Party (PT) and the Islamist Movement for a Peaceful Society (MSP) party for instance - it is highly unlikely any candidate they put forward will win the next presidential elections.
They are either seen as too provincial (RCD and to a lesser extent the FFS) or too Islamist (MSP), and the population is deeply wary. The Islamists crushing defeat in last year's legislative elections is a sign of the times. The PT's Louisa Hanoune cannot expect more than a token role in the elections.
Sign up for free AllAfrica Newsletters
Get the latest in African news delivered straight to your inbox
Uncertain but secure: Algeria's democratic flourishing
But these intricacies should not mask broader, more positive developments. Fifty years since Algeria's independence and nearly twenty five years since the end of the political monopoly of the FLN, the Algerian political scene could well be on the verge of a new era.
The continuing struggle for leadership of the main parties might show that besides the internal dynamics, Algeria could slowly be moving towards a society with modern, pluralistic political parties. The old guard may remain in power for a few more years, but there is a younger generation eager to take ownership of the country's future.
Changes in the FLN and RND leadership have been internally driven either through explicit, open challenges by reformists or by internecine secret manoeuvrings.
However, in both cases, the safeguards in place have prevailed over dissensions - either through open, transparent and democratic voting or through the incumbent's resignation.
It may also be worth stressing that on a gender level, in line with official UN targets which stipulate that national assemblies must have a minimum of 30% female representation, one-third of Algeria's parliamentary seats (32%) are currently occupied by women, ever since the last year's parliamentary elections.
This is not only a unique political configuration in the entire Arab world, but also a target many Western countries have yet to match.
As the events in some Eastern European countries, as well as the current political deadlock in nearby Egypt, Libya and Tunisia indicate, the emergence of fast track democracies are not necessarily a guarantee of stability or of a vibrant and healthy democracy in the longer term.
Since 1988, and the political reforms Algiers had engaged in, significant changes have been occurring within a complex and sophisticated political system. And more than any external model, this local experience could well be the base for the future.
The views expressed here are the independent views of the author and do not represent the views of ISS.
