Dakar — The pre-election legal dispute has ended, but the political dispute has not.
The electoral campaign began on Sunday, March 9, 2024, and will end on the 22nd, which means 12 days of effervescence and proposals, not to say promises, which as the saying goes "applies only to those who believe in them". However, it should be noted that people are not really enthusiastic as in the past, we didn’t see any shocking mottos and a lot of animation, for several reasons, including the Ramadan period, and above all the first false start of the campaign.
But what is at stake goes well beyond the mere register of declarations, it draws the contours of a recomposition of political space.
Two or even three horizon lines emerge in the current state of things.
First of all, the phenomenon of coalitions comes from the proliferation of candidacies. 93 initially and finally 19 were retained on the list published by the Constitutional Council. The logic of the system dictates that those who fail to pass the sponsorship must align themselves behind eligible candidates, particularly if they fail to find an agreement between them on a single, consensual candidacy around those with whom they share the same program and orientations and who have a political network, among other criteria.
The direct consequence of this state of affairs is that the unsuccessful candidates have to find a way to exist, and above all to take part in the campaign through a coalition, which, if successful, would open the door to « makeshift » seats for the leader and his acolytes.
For the other official candidates, this is also a strong added value, since, so far, there is no counterpart required by the new allies, who virtually create an electoral potential that only the election can confirm. But for «the poster» and the image it is very interesting for the candidate chosen on the list of 19, because as says a local adage «the election is a matter of addition and not subtraction».
It is also true that these different alliances are in some way announcing a possible second round, which requires new alliances more demanding in terms of offer of compromise, and electoral weight, (the results of the first round being known) sine qua non-conditions to collect the necessary votes to cross the fateful 50% bar, synonymous with victory.
All competitors are thinking about it and therefore implicitly adopt a non-aggression pact, so as not to compromise their chances, in the next redistribution of cards.
This is also how we can explain the reserved attitude of all candidates in the race so-called «spoliated» or failed candidates, who have filed an appeal to the Supreme Court, to request the cancellation of the new decree of the President of the Republic calling the electorate on March 24, 2024, which implies 12 campaign days instead of the 21 stipulated in the electoral code.
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All observers and experts had predicted that the appeal would be rejected for a number of reasons, mainly because the decisions of the Constitutional Council are not subject to appeal. In this case, the Council had decided to adhere to the date of March 24, 2024, set by decree, which therefore ratifies the duration of the mandate of less than 21 days.
But basically, we must recognize that the case was eminently political, because those who failed, and the candidate of the PDS Karim Wade, wanted to join their forces, to restart the process from scratch, giving real chances of participation to their candidates excluded from the race. The Constitutional Council, which is also a political court, not only judged the issue legally but also, by virtue of its prerogatives, ...politically too.
With this legal framework in place, there is no doubt that changes could occur within and between the different coalitions running during the campaign and after, directly or indirectly.
