Mombasa, Kenya — As temperatures climb, scientists warn the seas are approaching a perilous tipping point. Warming oceans are changing marine ecosystems and elevating climate risks to communities across the globe, from dying coral reefs and loss of biodiversity to more severe floods and threats to food security.
The oceans are warming faster, already producing more frequent marine heatwaves and changing the food chains coastal communities rely on. Human-caused warming is increasing faster than expected. Scientists warn that the 1.5°C threshold could be reached within years as greenhouse gas emissions stay at record levels. The 1.5-degree limit is central to the 2015 Paris Agreement. It's the most ambitious goal of an international treaty to protect people and avoid the worst impacts of the climate crisis.
2025 set the record for the highest heat content in the world's oceans.
One of the clearest signs of how much extra heat the planet is taking in is the sea surface temperature. Oceans absorb much of the planet's excess heat, and now they are at record-high temperatures. That makes ocean heat a solid indicator of long-term climate change. It is leading to more frequent coastal flooding, more powerful storms and increasing threats to marine ecosystems and coastal communities and disrupting weather patterns around the world.
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The increase in water temperature also destroys coral reefs that harbour fishing industries and shield the coastline from storm surges and rising sea levels. In a 2025 report, it was stated that there was considerable damage to warm-water coral reefs, with more than 80% showing signs of stress and suffering from heat exposure, bleaching, and death.
The science is clear, the world is warning us of the consequences of the warming of the oceans. The oceans are becoming more and more strained. Climate change is threatening the stability of the world and the lives of its inhabitants through disruption of food systems, forced migrations, violence and disease. The climate crisis will worsen without global efforts and action to reduce emissions.
Given this situation, the issue of climate was very prominent at the 11th Our Ocean Conference (OOC11) held in Mombasa, Kenya. Governmental delegates, researchers, and conservationists discussed how climate finance and the conservation of blue carbon habitats and nature-based solutions for increasing resilience will support the most vulnerable coastal countries in their efforts to adapt to climate change.
Valerie Hickey, Director for Environment at the World Bank, called attention to the growing recognition of the ocean as both a climate solution and an emerging economic frontier. She argued that global progress in ocean action now justifies renewed confidence and momentum.
She said that seagrasses, mangroves and salt marshes, though covering less than 2% of the ocean floor, absorb carbon up to ten times faster than tropical forests. She also pointed to the ocean's "carbon pump" as a critical global system that moves around 10 gigatons of carbon into the deep sea each year.
Hickey challenged the idea that progress on ocean action should be downplayed, arguing instead that the global community has reached several meaningful milestones that justify recognition and momentum.
"I think we need to take a victory lap, and we need to do it for three reasons," she said.
According to Hickey, the first reason is the growing political visibility of the ocean, which has moved firmly onto global climate and development agendas. She said that ocean issues are now recognised across governments, regardless of whether countries are coastal or landlocked. The second reason, she said, is the increasing acceptance of nature as a key form of climate infrastructure, particularly for adaptation in vulnerable coastal regions. Hickey pointed to mangroves' ability to absorb storm-wave energy as a prime example. Unlike concrete seawalls, mangroves don't just protect coastal communities; they also support local fisheries, building value over time rather than depreciating, she said.
The third reason was financial. Hickey said, is a rapid growth in ocean-related investment and finance. She pointed to rising commitments from multilateral development banks and private investors, alongside expanding blue bond markets.
"The World Bank Group alone in the last five years have almost doubled investment on public sector balance sheet from less than six billion dollars to over eleven billion dollars," she said. "On our private sector balance sheet, we're investing over two billion dollars in the small and medium-sized project developers who are building nature-based businesses in the ocean." Hickey pointed to the impact of the International Capital Market Association's Blue Bond Guidelines, launched in 2022 with support from the International Finance Corporation and partners, as a turning point for market growth. At the time, blue finance in bond markets stood at under three billion dollars; today, she said, it has surged to more than 18 billion dollars in issuances.
What's driving that capital influx, according to Hickey, comes down to four factors: more reliable and accessible data with proper measurement and verification systems; a stronger pipeline of investable projects at the local "seascape" level, built through coordination between philanthropic and public financing; cheaper local-currency credit as lenders grow more familiar with ocean-based business models; and expanding international governance frameworks, including the Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ) agreement, the World Trade Organization ( WTO ) 's fisheries deal, and emerging consensus on plastics pollution.
Together, she said, these shifts signal a broader transformation.
"We are moving beyond simply financing blue projects to beginning to see the emergence of blue economies, and at the nexus of climate and ocean, that really is good news that we need to celebrate," Hickey said.
Ocean agenda gaining ground in climate talks
"Today, the challenge is no longer making the case for why the ocean matters," said Dr Marinez Scherer, COP30 Ocean Envoy for Brazil. "The challenge is implementation."
Dr Scherer said global recognition of the ocean as central to climate action has advanced significantly in recent years. "Health, marine and coastal ecosystems support biodiversity, food security, livelihoods, economic development, and resiliency to climate change," she said. "They are among our most effective nature-based solutions, delivering benefits for both adaptation and mitigation."
At COP30, Scherer said efforts centred on elevating ocean-based climate action through the Blue Package, alongside growing engagement within the formal UNFCCC process. She expressed cautious optimism that the ocean agenda is gaining ground not just in broader climate discourse, but within the negotiations track itself. However, she said that effective ocean governance must also account for the interconnected nature of marine systems, which transcend political boundaries.
"We must also remember that the ocean is connected," she said. "Ocean currents, ecosystem species, climate impacts, and human activities do not stop at national borders."
She said that international waters, which cover nearly half the planet, are essential for regulating climate systems and sustaining biodiversity, but require stronger global cooperation for protection. "Today, the challenge is no longer making the case for why the ocean matters. The challenge is implementation," she said. She emphasised the need to translate science into policy and integrate ocean solutions into broader development and investment planning.
"How do we translate science into policy? How do we turn commitments into action? How do we integrate ocean solutions into development planning, climate strategies, and investment decisions?"
Looking ahead to COP31 in Antalya, she said there is an opportunity to build on current momentum and accelerate implementation through strengthened partnerships and coordinated action.
To help unpack these issues, the discussion brought together an exceptional panel of speakers drawn from science, policy, international negotiations, ocean governance and climate leadership, aimed at moving beyond identifying challenges to highlighting solutions and practical pathways forward.
Dr David Obura, Founder of CORDIO East Africa, framed coastal ecosystems as central to both climate resilience and sustainable development, drawing on his experience working on coral reefs in his hometown of Mombasa and across the broader East African coastline. He described a wide range of coastal ecosystems, including mangroves, seagrass beds, sandy shores, rocky shores and upwelling systems, as critical to biodiversity and to the livelihoods and economies that depend on healthy coastlines.
Speaking from his role chairing a scientific platform at IPBES, Obura said that he focuses on tracing the links between the natural benefits people draw on and the consequences of human activity on the ecosystems providing them. According to Obura, sustaining these systems requires maintaining the connections between nature and human economic systems and transforming economies to operate within ecological limits.
"Our lives depend on them, and to make this a balanced system," he said. "The challenge is how to try and transform from the systems we now have to sustainable ones."
He warned that climate change is already pushing marine ecosystems toward critical tipping points, citing alarming losses in coral reef systems and rising extinction risks for reef species. "We are now in a world of hards," he said, referring to accelerating coral reef decline, adding that "almost half of coral species are threatened with extinction now." He cited the IPBES 2020 global assessment, which found that roughly half of the world's coral reefs have already been lost.
The risks extend beyond outright species loss, Obura said. He pointed to species migrating toward cooler waters, leaving behind ecological gaps in warming areas where heat-adaptive species fail to move in, and projected declines in the nutritional value of tropical fish as ocean temperatures continue to rise, with direct consequences for the communities and economies that depend on them.
Looking ahead, he outlined three key pathways for resilient ocean futures: reducing the drivers of environmental decline, investing in restoration and protection efforts such as the global 30x30 biodiversity target, and strengthening sustainable use models that support coastal livelihoods. He further called for locally grounded and culturally relevant solutions developed in partnership with coastal communities, alongside a stronger equity lens in ocean and climate action.
"If we just move towards greater equity and justice, we will begin to resolve the challenges that we face," said Obura.
Climate change and pollution are locked in a 'vicious circle'
H.E. Dr Wilber Ottichillo, Governor of Vihiga County Government, warned that the world's oceans are facing two interconnected and escalating threats, climate change and pollution, both of which are already reshaping marine and coastal ecosystems.
"Oceans face two interlinked and escalating threats. This is climate change and pollution," he said. "These are not future scenarios. They are current realities and are affecting communities along Kenya's coast today."
"Pollution from plastics and untreated wastewater to industrial effluent is degrading critical habitats such as mangroves, seagrasses, and coral reefs," he said. According to Dr Ottichillo, these ecosystems are essential for biodiversity, fisheries, carbon sequestration and coastal protection, but their resilience is being weakened by the combined effects of human activity and climate stress.
He said the link between pollution and climate change was a "vicious circle" where the two factors "feed off each other" and threaten livelihoods, ecosystems and national development.
Dr Ottichillo said that Kenya has responded through a range of international, national and county-level policies and legal frameworks aimed at protecting marine ecosystems and strengthening climate resilience. He cited Kenya's commitments under international agreements such as the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the Convention on Biological Diversity, and the Nairobi Convention, alongside national legislation including the Environment Management and Coordination Act, the Climate Change Act, and the Sustainable Waste Management Act. He also referenced the National Blue Economy Strategy 2025–2030, the Fisheries Management and Development Act, the National Maritime Policy, and the National Climate Change Action Plan 2023–2027, as well as the 2017 ban on single-use plastics.
"All these efforts are geared towards ensuring our oceans remain sustainable for the current and future generations as per the principle of inter- and intra-generational equity," he said.
He said that coastal counties have also localised these frameworks through initiatives such as supporting beach management units, restoring mangrove ecosystems, improving waste management systems, and strengthening marine conservation programmes, with support from development partners including the World Bank.
Ocean solutions are fundamental
Astrid Bergmål, Norway's State Secretary for European and Arctic Affairs, spoke about the personal and strategic importance of ocean action. She said that her connection to the sea began in childhood on Norway's west coast and continues to shape her policy outlook.
"For me, all this work we are talking about… is close to my heart. It's reality. It's concrete. It's not just something out there we do to be good," she said. "It is fundamental."
She stressed the interconnected nature of the ocean, climate and biodiversity crises, arguing that they require coordinated, cross-sectoral responses at both national and global levels. Bergmål pointed to the work of the High-Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy, co-chaired by Norway's Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Palau's President Surangel Whipps Jr, which has advanced analysis on ocean-based climate solutions.
"The ocean does not recognise institutional boundaries, and neither should our solutions"
"Ocean-based solutions can deliver up to 35% of the annual greenhouse gas emission cuts needed by 2050 to limit warming to one and a half degrees," she said. "The potential is large, but the question is, of course, how can we accelerate the implementation of ocean-based climate solutions?"
She outlined three priorities driving Norway's approach.
Bergmål pointed to offshore wind expansion, carbon capture and storage, and green shipping as central pillars of its climate strategy. She said Norway has set ambitious offshore wind targets, including plans for up to 30 gigawatts of capacity by 2040, and is advancing floating offshore wind development as part of its energy transition. The second is carbon capture and storage, which she stressed is aimed specifically at hard-to-abate sectors like concrete production.
"We know that we will never succeed in the one-and-a-half-degree goal without solving the hard-to-abate questions," she said. "This is happening already… on the coast, just outside where I grew up."
The third priority is green shipping. Bergmål said that shipping accounts for roughly 3% of global CO2 emissions. Norway already operates 260 low- and zero-emission vessels along its coastline.
She said that Norway supports international efforts to decarbonise shipping through initiatives such as the GreenVoyage2050 programme, led by the International Maritime Organisation. Science, she said, remains central to Norway's ocean policy. She pointed to the EAF-Nansen programme, which supports fisheries research and ocean governance across 33 partner countries and currently has a vessel operating in Mombasa.
Bergmål also said that Norway has committed one billion Norwegian kroner over the next decade for Arctic Ocean research. This is aimed at improving the understanding of rapid climate change in polar regions. She said that ocean protection and sustainable use must go hand in hand, as reflected in Norway's support for marine protection, coral reef restoration, ocean planning and pollution reduction.
"The ocean does not recognise institutional boundaries, and neither should our solutions. We can't do this alone on any matter, even though it's renewable energy, or if it is mapping our coastal areas or whatever it is. We have to work together," said Bergmål.
Small islands call for unity and ambition in ocean-climate negotiations
Angelique Poupouneau, Lead Ocean Negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), said international ocean negotiations have moved significantly from the margins of climate diplomacy to the centre of global climate discussions, reflecting a major shift in how the ocean is treated within the UNFCCC process. "I remember the days back in 2018, we were sitting on the floors, sitting in circles and corridors, trying to strategise how to turn this preambular language in the UNFCCC convention… into concrete reports by the IPCC," she said. "The goal was to secure dedicated spaces to discuss the ocean-climate nexus."
Poupouneau said the ocean has now moved from the margins of the UNFCCC agenda into structured dialogue spaces, with growing recognition among parties.
"Today, you don't seem to be the strange, overzealous person going around the climate process saying the ocean is important," she said. "And that's great. At the same time, we shouldn't take it for granted."
She said more than three-quarters of parties have now included at least one explicit reference to the ocean in their Nationally Determined Contributions or their national climate plans. Poupouneau said that one of the most significant developments is the ocean's ability to bridge traditional divides within climate negotiations, bringing together countries and negotiating blocs that often stand on opposite sides of debates.
She warned, however, that genuine ocean protection requires confronting the root drivers of ocean degradation, particularly greenhouse gas emissions. "To those of us who say we care about the ocean, we cannot in that same breath cut budgets for climate finance," Poupouneau said. "We must deliver predictable, accessible finance that actually reaches all shores."
Poupouneau criticised what she described as a "false dichotomy" within UNFCCC negotiations between mitigation and finance, ambition and adaptation. She argued that these trade-offs undermine effective action.
"The ocean really exposes that fiction, a fiction that it always was. Because for the ocean to stop being the victim and become the solution, we cannot choose," said Poupouneau. "We do not get the choice to pick. Instead, we need all of it. Ocean climate action, deep emissions cuts, and real finance delivery, together. One cannot be traded against the other."
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Vidar Helgesen, Executive Secretary of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, said the world already has enough scientific knowledge to begin taking decisive action on ocean and climate challenges, even as critical gaps in understanding remain. He said that real-world evidence already shows the impacts of climate change on the ocean, but uncertainties persist around the speed and scale of future changes, as well as potential tipping points and deep-ocean processes.
"We have enough knowledge to act, and we have enough knowledge to plan, even if there is still a lot we don't know," he said. " We know not only from science, but from real life, what is happening, what climate change is unleashing on the ocean. What we don't fully know is the pace, scale, and ultimate consequences of these changes. The climate system contains significant lags."
He pointed to continuing scientific uncertainties around ocean carbon cycles, deep-sea systems, and the interaction between climate stress and other marine pressures. He also said that knowledge gaps should not delay action, particularly on emissions reduction. Helgesen called the need for continuous ocean data collection and monitoring systems to track rapid environmental change and support informed decision-making.
"We need better sustainable climate resilience, sustainable ocean planning and management in order to mitigate, to adapt and to prepare and respond to disasters that are already coming," he said. "The ocean doesn't belong to the ocean community or the ocean ministries only. What happens in the ocean doesn't stay there. It's a whole-of-society approach that is needed."
He added that ocean planning must integrate ecological, economic and social dimensions, including ecosystem carrying capacity, sustainable economic activities such as clean energy and climate-friendly food systems, and equitable access to marine resources. Helgesen said that the IOC is advancing this approach through a global strategy on sustainable ocean planning endorsed by its 153 member states, including new partnerships with Small Island Developing States (SIDS) to strengthen national-level planning capacity.
He said such efforts are especially urgent as multilateral processes face increasing strain.
Despite this, Helgesen said that action cannot wait for perfect international consensus. He said that while global multilateral progress remains important, countries cannot afford to wait for slow international processes to deliver results. Instead, he stressed that action must be driven at the national level through stronger planning, while also reinforcing cooperation between countries to support shared ocean and climate goals.
"We can't wait for that to happen. We need that action at the country level," said Helgesen.
Oceans and seas placed at the heart of COP31 priorities, says Turkish envoy
Fatih Turan, speaking on behalf of the COP31 Presidency-designate, said oceans are now central to the global climate agenda, and their protection is essential for achieving long-term climate goals. "We are not only discussing the future of our oceans, but also the future of global climate action," he said. "The protection of oceans is no longer merely an environmental policy priority. It is a fundamental condition for achieving global climate goals."
"The future of the oceans and the future of the climate cannot be considered separately," he said.
He outlined COP31's proposed action agenda, which includes 10 priority areas such as clean energy, food security, green industrialisation, climate-resilient cities, youth engagement, and oceans and seas, among others. According to Turan, the inclusion of oceans within COP31 priorities reflects both global urgency and Türkiye's own geographic reality as a country surrounded by seas on three sides.
This inclusion of oceans and seas among our priorities is not coincidental, he said. Türkiye is "fully aware of the strategic importance of marine ecosystems for our economic development, social well-being, and environmental sustainability. He said COP31 will aim to move beyond commitments toward implementation, with a focus on translating decisions into measurable outcomes.
"The most valuable outcome we aim to carry from this process to Antalya is ensuring that the ocean agenda is not limited to negotiation texts, but is supported by investments, partnerships, and results-oriented initiatives," said Turan. "Turkey remains committed to working with all stakeholders to place ocean protection at the centre of global climate action."
