'Uganda's Museveni Clings to Power - but Trouble Lies Ahead'

Official results show that President Yoweri Museveni will extend his 35-year rule. But the contested election, marred by fraud claims, illustrated the frustration that many citizens have with his administration. Opposition protests are likely in the days ahead. Kampala was mostly calm on January 17, a day after results were released, and on January 18,  when authorities restored internet access. The internet shutdown at election time made it difficult for the opposition to mobilise, with most people staying home, amid a massive police and army presence. The immediate priority will be to ensure that if protests occur, they are not met with brute force. Uganda's partners, including the incoming Biden administration in the U.S. and the European Union, should strongly urge Museveni to restrain security forces from using live ammunition. Instability in Uganda would have negative consequences for a region in which Kampala is a central security and political player, influential in countries ranging from South Sudan to Somalia, Burundi and the DRC. To prevent this outcome, Museveni should draw the right lessons from a campaign that has revealed, in stark terms, his growing unpopularity, writes Crisis Group expert, Murithi Mutiga.