How Russia Sanctions Could Impact Africa's Arms Procurement

Almost half of Africa's imports of military equipment come from Russia. These include tanks, warships, fighter aircraft and combat helicopters, as well as small arms - pistols - and assault rifles such as the new Kalashnikov AK-200 series rifle.

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) imposed comprehensive sanctions on Russia in a bid to cripple its ability to participate meaningfully in the global economy. These included exclusion from the Bank for International Settlements, including SWIFT which facilitates cross-border money transfers messaging.

Russia's suspension from global financial systems will disrupt arms deals with Africa. This presents both risks and opportunities for the continent. The risks include insecurity of supply of essential spares, the disruption of the operational and training plans for the defence forces that are using Russian equipment, and the high cost of sustaining equipment already deployed in operations.

The disruption in the supply value chain due to the sanctions, could facilitate and promote a huge black market in arms transfers. This may be difficult to reverse, even after the end of Russia's war in Ukraine. The wide-ranging sanctions could have serious implications for Africa. Importantly, they could affect the continent's ability to procure and maintain military hardware from Russia.

Many small and light weapons, such as the NATO-standard M16 and M4 assault rifles, sniper rifles, machine guns, and pistols, flooded the black market after the withdrawal of the U.S. from Iraq and Afghanistan.

There's a real danger of black market arms transactions, involving both state and non-state actors, becoming entrenched on the continent, writes Moses B. Khanyile for The Conversation.