How Cash Crisis, Possible Run-Off Could Hamper Nigeria Polls

With the 2023 presidential election a week away, the normal excitement about who may win is being overtaken by a fear that the election may not hold due to the ongoing cash swap crisis across Nigeria, reports Bisi Abidoye for Premium Times.

Over the past few weeks, violent protests in parts of the country over the scarcity of banknotes have overshadowed political campaign rallies. Citizens who turned in the old notes to their banks cannot get the new ones because the banks do not have them either. The scarcity of cash brought misery upon many homes and businesses, with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund among those who questioned the timing of the currency redesign exercise, so close to crucial general elections. 

However, of immediate concern is the potential harm that the scarcity of cash can do on the February 25, 2023 polls. Many voters will also need cash if they want to travel for the elections and to reach the polling units on election day. Unless the situation improves dramatically before the polls, the stage may be set for a low voter turnout, which may affect the outcomes of many of the polls and the legitimacy of the winners.

The Supreme Court temporarily suspended the February 10, 2023 deadline to stop the use of old banknotes. However, President Muhammadu Buhari directed the country's central bank to release old 200 naira banknotes back into circulation, to run concurrently with the new ones until April 10, 2023. He said that old 500 and 1,000 naira banknotes are no longer valid and must be taken to the central bank through designated channels.

Eighteen presidential candidates will participate in Nigeria's polls. The leading candidates for the presidential elections are Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party, Peter Obi of the Labour Party, and Rabiu Kwankwaso, of the New Nigerian Peoples Party.

According to a survey by Enough is Enough Nigeria (EiE Nigeria), conducted by SBM Intelligence, the election will be highly competitive with no clear front-runner and Nigerians should expect a run-off to decide its next president.