allAfrica.com: Somalia: Hints of Military Action Cause Puzzlement, Worry (Page 1 of 3)

Is Somalia likely to be targeted for U.S. military intervention in a "second phase" of the war against terror? The Bush administration isn't making any definitive statements but analysts knowledgeable about the complex political crosscurrents in the Horn of Africa are warning the administration to tread carefully. But will it listen?

State Department spokesman Richard Boucher told reporters Friday that the U.S. goal is to "make sure Somalia does not become a location where they [the terrorists] could operate, or a safe haven for terrorists. That is the way I would describe our policy, at this point. I don't really have a judgment as far as what may be going on there now."

The United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the unified command responsible for U.S. security interests in 25 nations, including nations on the Horn of Africa, has been asked to come up with a military plan for Somalia. This is "routine" contingency planning, claims a source close to administration thinking. "No policy decision has been made yet."

"We have concerns about Somalia," Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Walter Kansteiner told journalists in Nairobi recently, "but basically the mood in D.C. is, 'We got to get smarter.'"

In fact, reconnaissance missions conducted by U.S. soldiers and CIA agents have now determined that Al Qaeda's presence in Somalia is relatively small and unsophisticated.

As a result, the Pentagon, which had been pressing administration officials on the need for military action in Somalia seems to be backing away from the idea of a major military intervention, say some sources.

Preparing for action?

Nonetheless, Tuesday, German Defence Minister, Rudolf Scharping, told reporters at NATO headquarters in Brussels, that the U.S. is likely to strike Somalia next. "It's not a question of 'if' but of 'how' and 'when'," he said.

At a Pentagon press conference Wednesday, however, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld emphatically rebuked as "wrong," the German minister's remarks. "He didn't mean to be, and he's probably sorry, but he was flat wrong."

Even the German government has distanced itself from Scharping's comments. Foreign Ministry spokesman, Andreas Michaelis, called the Minister's remarks, "very peculiar. There is no planning for Somalia, the Americans have said that quite clearly."

But when General Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was asked about Scharping's comment, his response suggested otherwise: "There are...countries that worry us because they actively support and harbor [terrorists]. It's one thing to have a cell in your country, it's another to actively support them."

In a somewhat awkwardly constructed explanation of what actions might be taken against Somalia, Myers seemed to say anything is possible. He continued: "Somalia is one potential country - there are others as well - where you might have diplomatic, law enforcement action or potentially military action; all the instruments of national power, not just one."

And indeed, few in Washington or in other Western capitals, rule out the likelihood that some sort of U.S. military action is afoot in Somalia. France, which has a military presence in Djibouti is discussing coordinated action with the U.S. government. Speaking on background, one French government source close to those discussions told allAfrica.com, "The Horn of Africa region, particularly Somalia, is the subject of reflection, and it is obviously from Djibouti that we can proceed to put other operations in place."

As far as they know, say French sources confirming the German Foreign Ministry assessment, there is no definite military plan yet. There are "only verification operations, with helicopters hovering around and things like that, but no specific action plan," said one.

Who has the king's ear?

If latest intelligence says Al Qaeda does not have a major presence in Somalia, why has the Bush administration been so focused on that country?

Ethiopia has been "fairly pivotal" in providing "exaggerated" intelligence, "mainly channeled to the Department of Defense," says Dr. Ken Menkhaus, a specialist on Somalia and its Islamic movements, a past consultant to both the U.S. government and the United Nations.

When a nine-person U.S. government team scouted southwestern Somalia earlier this month, in addition to local warlords, Ethiopian military officers were present. That large nation has long felt threatened by ethnic Somali rebellion within its borders and the irredentist goals that Somali leaders have often articulated. There have been three wars between the two countries.

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