Conakry — The stakes are high in the current political crisis in the Republic of Guinea, whose people are among the world's poorest. In this part of west Africa, where Liberia and Sierra Leone are emerging from years of civil war and Cote d'Ivoire is still struggling to establish peace, unresolved tensions could lead to destabilization of the whole region.
The crisis has been developing since April 4, when a cabinet reshuffle granted broader powers to reformist Prime Minister Cellou Dallein Diallo, who was given oversight of key ministerial portfolios. A presidential decree announcing the changes, including cabinet appointments for seven of the prime minister's close associates, was read on the country's only broadcaster - the state-owned and government-controlled radio station, RTG.
Shortly after the announcement was aired, the RTG studios were raided by a group of Red Berets, generally identified as the presidency's elite military troops, who seized the tape of the broadcast. A few hours later, the station announced a second presidential decree that sacked the prime minister for "grave wrongdoings".
Prime Minister Diallo had been in office for 17 months and was highly regarded by many in the business community, as well as in diplomatic circles. The economic and socio-political reforms he was spearheading have been earning positive assessments from the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the European Union.
Public reaction of the current confusion in Conakry, the capital, is one of shock and dismay. The events of recent days highlight the glaring fact that there is no clear captain aboard the ship of state.
The ailing president, General Lansana Conte, known to be gravely ill from chronic diabetes, was evacuated to Geneva for emergency medical attention last month. The president's health has been of particular concern since he collapsed while overseas in 2002. To counter persistent rumors of his death in March, he taped a message to the nation from his hospital room before flying back to Conakry, where a homecoming ceremony staged to welcome him at the airport was attended by government and business leaders.
Succeeding Sekou Toure, who ruled for 25 years following Guinea's independence from France in 1958, Conte seized power in the political vacuum following Toure's death and has continued his authoritarian practices.
But the current uncertainty has revived speculation about who is in charge and what a transfer of power will bring. There is widespread fear that the nation is being held hostage by an unidentified group of individuals motivated by personal gain.
In addition, there is rising concern that the political imbroglio unfolding in this nation, once regarded as an oasis of calm against the civil wars in neighboring countries, could lead to uncertain and dangerous scenarios. Where are the leaders who will put first the well being of Guineans and the stability of the region?
Bold political and economical reforms are required. Guinea controls some two-thirds of the world proven bauxite reserves, as well as important amounts of gold, diamond, uranium and iron ore. These, added to its huge agricultural and hydroelectric potential, could make this a wealthy country instead of a pauper.
There are signs that the long-suffering patience among impoverished Guineans is not endless. In early March, an unprecedented general strike called over desperately low wages and soaring costs of living shut down the country for five days. The result was an agreement between the government and trade union leaders that promised an increase in civil servant wages by 30 percent and a 10 percent tax reduction on state employees' salaries.
Two weeks later, as the president was being evacuated to Geneva, political parties called a "National Consultation" that brought together opposition parties, trade unions, women's groups, youth groups and civil society organizations. For the first time, these representatives of all sectors of Guinean society discussed the country's future and came to the conclusion that a transitional national unity government is needed to rescue the country.
Sign up for free AllAfrica Newsletters
Get the latest in African news delivered straight to your inbox
On March 29, Nigerian President Chief Olusegun Obasanjo expressed concerns about Guinea during a visit with U.S President George W. Bush at the White House. "We are watching the situation in Guinea carefully," he said.
Instead of passively "watching", the international community led by the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) and the United Nations, should send a clear signal to Conakry that its internal political crisis must be resolved peacefully and democratically. Why not sponsor a mediation between the government - or what remains of it - and the opposition?
In a region where peace remains a fragile, but welcome, achievement, it would be a crime of omission to sit by and watch as Guinea experiences another transfer of power by force or descends into chaos. Forty-eight years after independence, the Guinean people deserve better.
The author of this column requested anonymity.
