Mark L. Schneider
17 June 2008
guest column
A decade ago Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki launched a border war in the Horn of Africa that killed 80,000 people.
As I left meetings with their top advisors in Asmara and Addis Ababa a few weeks ago, I could not help feeling that neither side seemed willing to admit that they once again have set in motion forces that could lead to another bloody battle in one of Africa's poorest and most conflict-ridden regions.
Month by month since last November Ethiopia and Eritrea have inched closer to war, each deploying more troops almost face-to-face across their common border, supporting opposition forces in the other country, and offering sanctuary to rival proxy forces in Somalia.
After five years of Ethiopia's refusal to accept physical border demarcation, the internationally recognized Eritrea-Ethiopia Border Commission (EEBC) said, "enough."It folded its tents last November and issued its final report, a set of map coordinates that designated the exact border between the two countries, a so-called "virtual" demarcation.
Not to be outdone in dangerous decisions, Eritrea essentially expelled the United Nations peacekeeping force that had physically occupied a buffer "Temporary Security Zone" (TSZ) along the border since 2000. Both sides now have reinforced their forces on the border with heavy weapons. Eritrea pushed its forces right through the TSZ to the border, arguing it was simply moving its troops onto its legal territory, as blessed by the EEBC.
The commission had been set up as part of the 2000 Algiers peace agreement. Both countries promised to accept its subsequent rulings as "final and binding". Eritrea quickly accepted the virtual demarcation because it thought it fared well in the arbitration. Ethiopia only grudgingly accepted the arbitration, but balked at the physical marking along the border.
Now the UN has issued a blistering criticism of Eritrea for shutting off fuel from its peacekeeping force, grounding even emergency helicopters. Its actions essentially expelled the force.
Meles and Isaias, brothers in battle against the dictatorship of former Ethiopian leader Mengistu Haile Mariam in the late 1980's, seemed reasonably amicable in the years after Ethiopia recognized Eritrea's independence in 1993, accepting a land-locked status in the process. Since 1998, however, they have more closely resembled Cain and Abel, and their countries have suffered.
United States diplomats helped facilitate the Algiers Accord in 2000, and promised to support the EEBC. But the administration of President George W. Bush has been largely absent during key moments since the EEBC issued its 2002 decision, and has been mimicked by the rest of the international community, including the Security Council. Since then, few incentives were offered for compliance, and failures to abide by commitments were not followed up by sanctions.
The Bush administration has been reluctant to put pressure on Ethiopia because it considers it a regional security ally and an important player in its counterterrorism policies. The most visible example of that policy is Ethiopia's ongoing intervention in Somalia, which has come not only with U.S. support, but perhaps by U.S. design.
The rivalry between the two nations has destabilized both countries. There are also allegations that Meles and Isaias use the threat of war to justify cracking down on political freedoms, which has created a quasi-police state in Eritrea.
Ethiopian officials told our delegation they would respect the border after normal relations were established with Eritrea. Eritrean officials said the reverse – once Ethiopia recognizes the border and Eritrean sovereignty over disputed land, normal relations will follow, including agreements on access to ports and cross-border development.
The international community must not allow events to take their dangerous course. A peace rescue package is needed before war breaks out. It must pour water on the current fuel for combat by separating the military forces, end border uncertainty and deal with underlying issues between the two countries.
History can be cruel if its lessons are ignored. Ethiopia and Eritrea and its international partners are close to learning that lesson once more.
Mark Schneider is senior vice president of the International Crisis Group
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Bravo!!bravo!! the ICG do you know what, your article is really attractive but, it also brings a question in every concerned reader and especially to the eritrean one because, this aritcle would have and should have been released five or at least four year a go and thus would have avoided hostility or contributed to building peace and push to wards peaceful advancement or other wise.
secondly your aritcle seems to me and my friends and even probably to the eritrean leadership that, the driving force or motivation is only to save the ethiopian leadership that is facing an emberasement of inevitable famine like his predecessors and thus use the port to reach the hungry people.
it is a matter of seller and buyer and thus use the balance of power and the choices,pressure,and all that things to win the sell and acqisatoin vice versa. so meles has no choice and thus abide with your statements above.
it is not bad but dont forget your article will bring quetions why now? why not before ? etc....
let me tell you I am marketing student and live in nairobi and i am also interested in politics and especially related to my country. I have used to despise and hate the eritrean leadership for that stalled political process but now me and my alikes are attracted to that hated leadership for a reason. trust me the eritrean authorities have prosecuted me and still are but i do differenciate that my problems and the corporate decisions in my country.
if you are in nairobi please write to me and get more feed back on eritreans and thier perceptions.
Eritrea ruler is now on a head-on collision with the UN. Under such circumstances, what options does the UN have? For now “The Security Council expresses its determination to closely monitor the situation and to consider further appropriate steps for the safety and protection of the Mission and its personnel.
All days , he kills the journalists, the member of opposition
Afeworki is very dangerous because he protect the islamist maybe the author of the 911 is in Asmara
Wy the US doesn't attack him ?
Not really commenting the page,i was just looking up some african beliefs and came across this comment.Wondering....is this Tesfaldet,In indy?
You obivously did not read, nor do you understand the situation at hand. Let's take a look at this quote for instance:
"The Bush administration has been reluctant to put pressure on Ethiopia because it considers it a regional security ally and an important player in its counterterrorism policies. The most visible example of that policy is Ethiopia's ongoing intervention in Somalia, which has come not only with U.S. support, but perhaps by U.S. design."
It's kind of hard to remain a peacful nation when you have the "Western" world trying to steadily f*ck you over. Americans and everyone outside of Eritrea have no idea, and will never be able to comprehend the bloodshed that was sacrificed to obtain our freedom. Is easy to cast judgment looking from outside to within.
Thanks for calling a spade a spade (i.e., this state of affairs is largely thanks to the the US trading Ethiopian regional support for pass on disregarding its international legal obligations), but your solution is vulnerable. Point 4 calls for demarcation of undisputed areas, followed by the familiar plea for 'dialogue'. Leaving aside for a moment the imbalance inherent in that priority of demarcation (the only areas that are 'undisputed' are those that transfer land from Eritrea to Ethiopia because Eritrea accepts the decision and Ethiopia does not), the Eritrean government will simply never entertain a solution that will subject it to the Death by a Thousand Cuts that a negotiation of the remaining areas would entail. The boundary, as the EEBC has publicly and unambiguously stated, is the boundary. It was determined acording to a fair process agreed by the parties. That Ethiopia now dislikes the result does not provide a basis for enforcing a negotiation absent a fairly large and tasty carrot that does not appear to be on offer. Why in the world would the Eritrean goverment (and, trust me, I am not an apologist for it) cede the legal certainty it has for negotiation, a process which has never resulted in any thing other than a knife in its back? As the saying goes, I may be paranoid, but am I paranoid enough. I think Eritrea will simply throw its lot in with Iran, and, in the light of history, it's not terribly difficult to figure out why.
The international community should not waste time, money and effort on inconsequential nitwits. I would arm them with deadly nuclear bombs, a piece each, to assure their mutual destruction. The world is a better place with out them.
Ethiopian Woman
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This is a very sorry state of affairs. It is beyond comprehension that two of the most poorest countries on earth could not use their meagre resources for the development of their countries and the betterment of their long suffering citizens instead of fighting another senseless war. Zenawi and Afwerki were lauded not so long ago as a different kind of African leaders but unfortunately thery are as old school as the likes of Mobutu etc. Shouldn't Meles Zenawi concentrate his attention and resources to the hundred of thousands of people who are starving or vulnerable to famine due to droughts? I think the AU should pressurise these members countries to the negociating table and avoid another war in the continent at all cost.