Cape Town — Climate change threatens to spark violent conflict in 23 African countries and political instability in another 14, a top-level international review panel says in a report published Wednesday.
The following extract, from the 2009 report of the Africa Progress Panel, accompanies a recommendation that the continent should pioneer models of "clean development" to help the world manage climate change:
The evidence is clear. Climate change is a reality that is already affecting the lives of millions of Africans by reducing agricultural production and food security, increasing water stress, facilitating the spread of diseases, increasing the risk of droughts, flooding and mass-migration, as well as by eroding coastal habitats and valuable agricultural space through rising sea levels.
This reality is threatening to overwhelm fragile communities and push millions of Africans even deeper into poverty. Research conducted by Oxfam projects that by 2015 substantially more people may be affected by natural disasters as a result of climate change and more people will be vulnerable to them because of their poverty or location.
According to International Alert, 23 African countries will face "a high risk of violent conflict" when climate change exacerbates traditional security threats. A further 14 African countries face "a high risk of political instability".
Climate change is affecting the revenue and expenditure side of national budgets. It cannot be treated solely as an environmental issue but needs to be seen as integral to growth and development strategies, both to ensure that risks are managed and opportunities such as investments in renewable energy and low carbon growth are seized.
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While 22 countries have completed their National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) and many are pursuing reforms to encourage sustainable land management and combat deforestation, few have reviewed their national development plans from a climate change perspective.
On the inter-governmental level, the African Ministerial Conference on the Environment has held meetings to formulate a common African position on climate change in the run-up to the Copenhagen Conference in December 2009. The body has also decided to create an Africa Climate Policy Centre as well as a comprehensive framework of African climate change programmes, bringing together existing and new intergovernmental decisions, initiatives and programmes in a consolidated manner.
Other noteworthy developments include the launch of the Congo Basin Forest Fund, the World Bank's pilot programme for climate resilience in Mozambique, Niger and Zambia, and the financing of projects aimed at reversing land and water degradation and establishing observatories for monitoring the environment by the Global Environment Facility.
Much remains to be done. Resources from the Clean Development Mechanism which helps to promote low emission projects in developing countries, for example, have so far bypassed Africa completely (less than 30 out of 1,400 projects supported were in Africa) and the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation scheme is yet to lead to graspable results.
