A small piece of land in Sudan and one of the international tribunals based in the Netherlands are about to have a large impact on Sudan's present and future.
With memories of Sudan's bloody north-south civil war still fresh, on Wednesday the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague will issue its decision in a case involving Abyei, an area of central Sudan that is rich in oil deposits and claimed both by the north and the south.
What happens in Abyei in the coming days and weeks will be a harbinger of things to come in Sudan's complex political future, for it will give an indication of whether the ruling parties of n\orth and south Sudan can bridge their differences peacefully in the future.
The reaction to the ruling will be the first major test of commitments made by the north's National Congress Party (NCP), led by President Omar al-Bashir, and the south's Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) at a recent meeting in Washington.
It will also test the strategy of engaging the NCP which is being pursued by President Barack Obama's special envoy to Sudan, Major General J. Scott Gration.
Relevant Links
The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) between the NCP and the SPLM, which ended a civil war that cost about two million lives, established a commission charged with determining the boundaries of Abyei and whether it belongs to the north or south. But the NCP rejected the commission's decision, which favored the SPLM. The two parties then agreed to refer the case to the Permanent Court of Arbitration for a final ruling.
Meanwhile, Abyei remains under special administrative status and was last year the scene of the most significant north-south violence since the signing of the CPA. For several days in May 2008, Sudan seemed on the verge of a return to war as much of Abyei was burned and an estimated 60,000 people fled the area. Many have yet to return.
The coming decision is only the latest in an escalating series of tests of the NCP and SPLM's willingness to cooperate – and of the international community's ability to influence outcomes in Sudan.
Darfur remains in crisis. Nationwide elections, twice delayed already, are scheduled for April 2010. The process initiated by the CPA is meant to culminate in January 2011 with a referendum in which the southern Sudanese will decide whether to remain part of Sudan or secede, and a simultaneous referendum in Abyei on whether to be part of the north or south.
All eyes will be on how Wednesday's verdict is received in Abyei. Senior politicians from the NCP and SPLM, along with diplomatic heavy-hitters such as General Gration and the top United Nations official in Sudan, Ashraf Qazi, will be there when the verdict is made public.
With so many eyes watching, it seems unlikely that violence would break out immediately. But those leaders will be gone within days. Spoilers know that if they bide their time, opportunities will arise. Even if the NCP and SPLM are genuine in their commitment to the verdict, it is unclear whether they can control their constituents and proxies in and around Abyei.
If the NCP and SPLM cannot work together to prevent the Abyei verdict from triggering violence there is little hope they can clear the higher hurdles to come. They must cooperate on the 2010 elections, including resolving an ongoing dispute over census figures that are central to the election's legitimacy. They must cooperate on passing legislation on the southern referendum, and they need to work together to make sure both the elections and referendum are peaceful.
If Abyei remains calm in the coming days, those pleased with the verdict should keep their celebrations brief. The focus should be on educating residents about the verdict and its implications. Vigilant monitoring of the fragile local peace should continue. Most important, planning and preparation for those higher hurdles will need to accelerate.
When NCP and SPLM leaders met in Washington at General Gration's initiative in June, they were unequivocal in their commitment to accept the verdict on Abyei. Broad acceptance in the days ahead can be a much-needed confidence-building measure between the NCP and SPLM and between Khartoum and Washington. But rejection– or foot-dragging on implementing the verdict– will inflame already-strained relations and may lead to further bloodshed in a place that has seen too much violence.
Jon Temin is a program officer for Sudan in the Center for Mediation and Conflict Resolution of the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, DC.
Comments 1 to 3 of 3 Post a comment
The number of pressing issues in Sudan is ever-growing; however, at the forefront remains the outstanding warrant of al-Bashir. If he and his government are responsible for ongoing hostilities in Darfur and surrounding regions, then how can progress be made on other fronts while he remains in leadership and these crises remain largely unaddressed and unresolved?
http://www.enewse.com/
BY PEACE SHALL Many Be deceived (Daniel 8:25) .
Does The Term PEACEKEEPERS ring a bell ?
Ask the people in Rwanda (who survived that Peace-keeping) about the UN PEACEKEEPERS .
President Obamas UNITED NATIONS AMBASSADOR SUSAN RICE cut her teeth on the RWANDA MASSACRE .OOOPs!!! She said.
(Heres a Search Link To Many Witnesses To THE NEW U.N. RICE MONSTER)
[http://ixquick.com/do/metasearch.pl?query=Susan+Rice+Rwanda&cat=web&pl=ff& language=english]
OBAMA DECEPTIONS
#1
[ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrpRocaEfQE ]
[ http://www.infowars.com/obama-feigns-ignorance-of-cfr-nau/ ]
[ http://www.infowars.com/michelle-obama-flashes-%E2%80%98el-diablo%E2%80%99- hand-signal-on-cover-of-vogue/ ]
#2 Here is evidence of Point 2 of the Georgia Guidestones on Reproduction .
Don't be deceived :
[http://www.infowars.com/?p=7259]
Here are search result links to what the Georgia Guidestones are
[ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_Guidestones ]
#3
BY PEACE SHALL Many Be deceived (Daniel 8:25) .
DOES THE TERM PEACEKEEPERS ring a Bell ?
Ask the people in Rwanda (who survived that Peace-keeping) about the
United Nations PEACEKEEPERS .
President Obamas UNITED NATIONS AMBASSADOR SUSAN RICE cut her teeth on
the RWANDA MASSACRE . OOOPs!!! She said.
(Heres a Search Link To Many Witnesses To THE NEW U.N. RICE MONSTER)
[http://ixquick.com/do/metasearch.pl?query=Susan+Rice+Rwanda&cat=web&pl=ff& language=english]
FAMILIES LINE UP FOR MASONIC CHILD ID PROGRAM ! UNCLE BEAST WANTS YOU !!!
[http://www.infowars.com/families-line-up-for-masonic-child-id-program/ ]
In his piece entitled White Collar War Crimes, Black African Fall Guys,
investigative journalist Keith Snow writes:
First note that the ICC can now be viewed as a tool of hegemonic U.S. foreign policy,
where the weapons deployed by the U.S. and its allies include the accusations of, and
indictments for, human rights violations, war crimes and crimes against humanity.
To understand this, we can ask WHY NO WHITE MAN HAS YET BEEN CHARGED
with these or other offenses at the ICC (International Criminal Court) which now holds
five black African warlords and seeks to incarcerate and bring to trial another black man,
also an Arab, Omar Bashir.
Why hasnt George W. Bush been indicted ? Or what about Donald Rumsfeld ?
Dick Cheney? Henry Kissinger? Ehud Olmert? Tony Blair?
The sad fact is that the International Criminal Court has become terribly
politicized, as has the entire international justice apparatus.
The ICC has issued indictments, for the first time in history, against a sitting head of
state. Meanwhile, according to Snow, an Israeli weapons dealer, also a reputed Mossad
operative, is revealed to be shipping weapons into Sudan with Pentagon support.
And Belgium changed its law rather than prosecute Ariel Sharon for war crimes.
The double standard cries out to us.
One country in the West, however, increasingly stands out as a place where
justice can be found?and that is Spain. With its landmark indictment of
Pinochet and its current consideration of Israeli war crimes in Lebanon and
U.S. torture in Guantanamo, we increasingly look to the Spanish Courts with
hope. It was the Spanish courts that returned indictments against Rwandan
soldiers for genocide even as the world coddles U.S. proxy Rwanda and its
leader, Paul Kagame.
[allthingscynthiamckinney.com]
OUR DEEPEST FEAR By Marianne Williamson
Our Deepest Fear Is Not That We Are Inadequate, Our Deepest Fear Is That We Are Powerful Beyond Measure. It Is Our Light , Not Our Darkness That Most Frightens Us.
We Ask Ourselves, Who Am I To Be Brilliant, Gorgeous, Talented, And Fabulous ?
Actually Who Are We Not To Be ? You Are A Child Of God.
Your Playing Small Doesnt Serve The World.
There Is Nothing Enlightened About Shrinking So That Other People Wont Feel Insecure Around You.
We Are All Meant To Shine, As Children Do.
We Were Born To Make Manifest The Glory Of God That Is Within Us.
Its Not Just In Some Of Us; Its In Everyone.
And When We Let Our Own Light Shine We Unconsciously Give Other People Permission To Do The Same.
And As We Are Liberated From Our Own Fear, Our Presence Automatically Liberates Others
[NOTE BEING AFRAID AND REFUSING TO GET INVOLVED WONT STOP US FROM DYING. BUT BEING AFRAID CAN PREVENT US FROM LIVING]
(Nkosi Sikeleli Africa )
God bless Africa May her glory be lifted high Hear our petitions .
God bless us, Your children God we ask You to protect our nation Intervene and end all conflicts Protect us, protect our nation, our nation.
From the blue of our heaven, From the depths of our sea, Over our eternal mountain ranges, Where the cliffs give answer.
Sounds the call to come together, And united we shall stand, Let us live and strive for freedom, In South Africa our land.
[Enoch Mankayi Sontonga]
WAKE UP ! STAY UP MY BROTHERS & SISTERS ! BE SELF-SUFFICIENT IN THE KINGDOM OF HEAVEN.
[http://www.infowars.com/infowars.asx] / [gcnlive.com]
- Life Is a Game. Have Fun. [ Luke 18:17 / Isaiah 11:6 ]
BY PEACE SHALL Many Be deceived (Daniel 8:25) .
Does The Term PEACEKEEPERS ring a bell ?
Ask the people in Rwanda (who survived that Peace-keeping) about the UN PEACEKEEPERS .
President Obamas UNITED NATIONS AMBASSADOR SUSAN RICE cut her teeth on the RWANDA MASSACRE .OOOPs!!! She said.
(Heres a Search Link To Many Witnesses To THE NEW U.N. RICE MONSTER)
[http://ixquick.com/do/metasearch.pl?query=Susan+Rice+Rwanda&cat=web&pl=ff& language=english]
OBAMA DECEPTIONS
#1
[ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrpRocaEfQE ]
[ http://www.infowars.com/obama-feigns-ignorance-of-cfr-nau/ ]
[ http://www.infowars.com/michelle-obama-flashes-%E2%80%98el-diablo%E2%80%99- hand-signal-on-cover-of-vogue/ ]
#2 Here is evidence of Point 2 of the Georgia Guidestones on Reproduction .
Don't be deceived :
[http://www.infowars.com/?p=7259]
Here are search result links to what the Georgia Guidestones are
[ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_Guidestones ]
#3
BY PEACE SHALL Many Be deceived (Daniel 8:25) .
DOES THE TERM PEACEKEEPERS ring a Bell ?
Ask the people in Rwanda (who survived that Peace-keeping) about the
United Nations PEACEKEEPERS .
President Obamas UNITED NATIONS AMBASSADOR SUSAN RICE cut her teeth on
the RWANDA MASSACRE . OOOPs!!! She said.
(Heres a Search Link To Many Witnesses To THE NEW U.N. RICE MONSTER)
[http://ixquick.com/do/metasearch.pl?query=Susan+Rice+Rwanda&cat=web&pl=ff& language=english]
FAMILIES LINE UP FOR MASONIC CHILD ID PROGRAM ! UNCLE BEAST WANTS YOU !!!
[http://www.infowars.com/families-line-up-for-masonic-child-id-program/ ]
In his piece entitled White Collar War Crimes, Black African Fall Guys,
investigative journalist Keith Snow writes:
First note that the ICC can now be viewed as a tool of hegemonic U.S. foreign policy,
where the weapons deployed by the U.S. and its allies include the accusations of, and
indictments for, human rights violations, war crimes and crimes against humanity.
To understand this, we can ask WHY NO WHITE MAN HAS YET BEEN CHARGED
with these or other offenses at the ICC (International Criminal Court) which now holds
five black African warlords and seeks to incarcerate and bring to trial another black man,
also an Arab, Omar Bashir.
Why hasnt George W. Bush been indicted ? Or what about Donald Rumsfeld ?
Dick Cheney? Henry Kissinger? Ehud Olmert? Tony Blair?
The sad fact is that the International Criminal Court has become terribly
politicized, as has the entire international justice apparatus.
The ICC has issued indictments, for the first time in history, against a sitting head of
state. Meanwhile, according to Snow, an Israeli weapons dealer, also a reputed Mossad
operative, is revealed to be shipping weapons into Sudan with Pentagon support.
And Belgium changed its law rather than prosecute Ariel Sharon for war crimes.
The double standard cries out to us.
One country in the West, however, increasingly stands out as a place where
justice can be found?and that is Spain. With its landmark indictment of
Pinochet and its current consideration of Israeli war crimes in Lebanon and
U.S. torture in Guantanamo, we increasingly look to the Spanish Courts with
hope. It was the Spanish courts that returned indictments against Rwandan
soldiers for genocide even as the world coddles U.S. proxy Rwanda and its
leader, Paul Kagame.
[allthingscynthiamckinney.com]
OUR DEEPEST FEAR By Marianne Williamson
Our Deepest Fear Is Not That We Are Inadequate, Our Deepest Fear Is That We Are Powerful Beyond Measure. It Is Our Light , Not Our Darkness That Most Frightens Us.
We Ask Ourselves, Who Am I To Be Brilliant, Gorgeous, Talented, And Fabulous ?
Actually Who Are We Not To Be ? You Are A Child Of God.
Your Playing Small Doesnt Serve The World.
There Is Nothing Enlightened About Shrinking So That Other People Wont Feel Insecure Around You.
We Are All Meant To Shine, As Children Do.
We Were Born To Make Manifest The Glory Of God That Is Within Us.
Its Not Just In Some Of Us; Its In Everyone.
And When We Let Our Own Light Shine We Unconsciously Give Other People Permission To Do The Same.
And As We Are Liberated From Our Own Fear, Our Presence Automatically Liberates Others
[NOTE BEING AFRAID AND REFUSING TO GET INVOLVED WONT STOP US FROM DYING. BUT BEING AFRAID CAN PREVENT US FROM LIVING]
(Nkosi Sikeleli Africa )
God bless Africa May her glory be lifted high Hear our petitions .
God bless us, Your children God we ask You to protect our nation Intervene and end all conflicts Protect us, protect our nation, our nation.
From the blue of our heaven, From the depths of our sea, Over our eternal mountain ranges, Where the cliffs give answer.
Sounds the call to come together, And united we shall stand, Let us live and strive for freedom, In South Africa our land.
[Enoch Mankayi Sontonga]
WAKE UP ! STAY UP MY BROTHERS & SISTERS ! BE SELF-SUFFICIENT IN THE KINGDOM OF HEAVEN.
[http://www.infowars.com/infowars.asx] / [gcnlive.com]
- Life Is a Game. Have Fun. [ Luke 18:17 / Isaiah 11:6 ]