An alleged coup attempt in Mali sheds light on the tensions facing the interim government of Colonel Assimi Goita. Yet, despite sanctions and isolation, Malians still back the military.
One thing Mali's military government doesn't seem to have to worry about at the moment is losing the general public's widespread support.
At a solidarity rally held last week in the capital Bamako, many Malians came out to show their approval.
"These soldiers are our hope," demonstrator Mariam Simpara Diakite told the AFP news agency.
Another supporter of the military government told APF that the military was providing much-needed security.
"Without security, nothing works. No farming, no trade, no livestock," Bakabigny Keita said. "Showing our support [for them] is the least we can do."
The military leadership may enjoy the support of many Malians, but it's a different story internationally.
The interim government of Colonel Assimi Goita, which secured power in a "coup within a coup" just under a year ago, is charting a course leading it further into global isolation.
In particular, a trade embargo imposed by the West African economic bloc ECOWAS in January is driving up prices in the Sahelian country.
ECOWAS member states closed air and land borders to Mali as part of the sanction measures, while also cutting off the country from most commercial and financial transactions with West African banks.
Cracks within the junta?
At the same time, cracks in the military's support for the junta-led transitional government are beginning to show.
On Tuesday, there were reports that Colonel Amadou Keita, previously considered loyal to the junta, had been arrested.
Kieta was one of several suspected participants in a failed coup attempt that the military leadership made public on Monday night.
Government spokesman Amadou Maiga called the events, yet to be independently confirmed, an "unhealthy attempt to break the momentum of Mali's re-emancipation."
Mali isolating itself
Since the May 2021 coup, the rift between the new rulers and the international community has widened.
On Sunday, the interim government announced its withdrawal from the G5-Sahel regional security alliance, ostensibly because it had been denied the organization's rotating chairmanship since the beginning of the year.
Apart from Mali, the G5 coalition includes Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad.
"Until today, G5-Sahel has done everything to deny the Malian president his rights," Fousseynou Ouattara from the ruling National Transitional Council told DW.
Ouattara, who is vice president of the Transitional Council's defense committee, added that this was because of the "interference of a third country."
Asked whom he was alluding to, Ouattara blamed France -- Mali's military government has repeatedly distanced itself from its former colonial power.
EU pulls the plug on Mali
Europe's response to Mali's withdrawal from the G5-Sahel has been swift.
The EU's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, reaffirmed that the bloc would continue with its suspension of the EU training mission in Mali, but would not yet cancel the mission.
Sahel expert Fahiraman Rodrigue Kone from the Institute of Security Studies's Bamako office doesn't believe that Mali's decision to withdraw from the G5-Sahel will change much.
"The joint force's options were already limited by the government crises in three of the five member states," said Kone, referring to Mali as well as Burkina Faso and Chad.
Burkina Faso and Chad are both led by military governments and similarly to Mali, there are no indications when the two countries may return to civilian rule.
Niger's former defense minister, Kalla Moutari, believes that Mali's withdrawal from the G5-Sahel is self-defeating.
Mali had already withdrawn from active cooperation with the group, he pointed out, but by making its withdrawal official, the country is now no longer entitled to diverse financial and technical support from abroad that forms part of G5 collaboration.
Mali choosing own path
For Mali, turning away from old allies is a sign of its political reorientation, Sahel expert Rodrigue Kone says.
"Mali has been trying to redefine its alliances for some time, relying on Russia," he said.
According to Olaf Bernau from the German civil society network Fokus Sahel, Mali has benefited from this relationship, with Russia providing military equipment to fight terrorism.
Bernau warns, however, that relying on Russia, which is also experiencing growing international isolation because of its war on Ukraine, is not without risk for Mali's military junta.
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At the same time, turning traditional allies into enemies, as Mali is doing, is "a proven means of maintaining a mood in favor of the government," he said.
Is ECOWAS making a mistake?
Olaf Bernau points out that the Malian population is suffering under the ECOWAS sanctions.
"ECOWAS is making a very crucial mistake here," he said. "The population opposes the sanctions and as resentment rises, it drives Mali further into the arms of Russia."
Public support for military leaders shouldn't be confused with a general rejection of democratic structures in Mali, Bernau said.
On the contrary, he points out, people often still talk of this being a transitional and not a permanent government.
At last week's solidarity rally, for example, the protester Amina Toure said: "We are showing ECOWAS that we have chosen these military men for the transition."
"The duration of the transition is not our problem at all. All we want is for our country to regain its stability and its dignity," she told AFP.
Reliou Koubakin and Remy Mallet contributed to this article, which was originally written in German.
