Nairobi — A new survey by Infotrak has placed the popularity of Azimio-One Kenya coalition party presidential candidate Raila Odinga at 42 percent ahead of his main rival Deputy President William Ruto.
According to the study, conducted between May 23 and May 27, Ruto’s popularity rating dropped to 38 percent.
The Infotrak study attributed the new results to the running mate choices made by both Odinga and Ruto ahead of the August elections.
This is in contrast to previous surveys conducted that showed the two presidential contenders in a neck-to-neck race.
It shows that Raila has gained after picking Martha Karua to be his running mate while Ruto has dropped after picking Rigathi Gachagua.
“When we did this survey about four weeks ago, it was neck to neck for the two key contenders. Let us be clear this is going to be a two-horse race. We said this last year, we called it as a two-horse race, now we have four teams that have been cleared by IEBC, but indeed what we are seeing which a no brainer is that it is going to be a two-horse race,” Angela Ambitho, CEO of Infotrak Research and consulting said Wednesday.
Ambitho said the new percentage translates to 9.3 million votes for Odinga and 8.4 million votes for Ruto if 95 per cent of registered voter’s vote
She noted that if elections were held today, Odinga would be leading in 20 counties, and he would have 25 per cent popularity in 37 of the 47 counties based on the polls.
Kenya Kwanza Presidential flag bearer on his part would be leading in 16 counties and have 25 per cent popularity in 38 of the 47 counties according to the survey.
Sign up for free AllAfrica Newsletters
Get the latest in African news delivered straight to your inbox
“What these says is, the two candidates already meet the threshold of having 25 per cent in half of the counties, what none of them is meeting right now is the 50 plus one, because of the undecide votes,” she said.
She singled out Isiolo, Laikipia, Embus, Meru, Kiambu, Murang’a, Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Kericho, Bomet, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi, Baringo as DP Ruto’s strongholds.
The Infotrak CEO further named Tana River, Kwale, Lamu, Turkana, Narok, Kajiado, Samburu, Nakuru, west pokot, Bungoma and Trans-Nzoia as battleground counties.
According to Ambitho, 95 percent of Kenyans surveyed say they intend to vote during the upcoming polls while 5 percent said they will not vote due to lack of confidence in the structures and systems in place to ensure free and fair elections.
“Some of them said the elections is already decided so there is no point. Some of them are saying IEBC need to instill a little more confidence in us that they are prepared for the next elections,” she noted.
9,000 respondents from 47 counties were surveyed in the poll.
