South Africa: SA Mining Output Falls in July and Manufacturing Growth Slows, Signalling Fragile Start for Q3 GDP

As rolling power cuts intensified in September, data this week showed that the economy's industrial arms got off to a faltering start in the third quarter (Q3) of this year. Mining production fell, while manufacturing output expanded at a slower rate in July. With the return of Stage 6 power cuts in the quarter's final month, it all bodes ill for the Q3 GDP number.

South Africa dodged a winter of discontent, but the economy remained in the doldrums.

Data released this week by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) painted a bleak picture of industrial production in July, suggesting a loss of what little momentum there was after the economy grew by a faster-than-expected 0.6% in Q2.

Manufacturing production, a key driver of Q2 GDP growth, expanded at a much slower rate in July on an annual basis than it did in any of the previous three months, while mining output tanked, maintaining its long-term decline.

Stats SA data on Monday showed that manufacturing output rose by 2.3% year on year in July after climbing by 5.9% in June. In May it posted annual growth of 2.5%, and 3.6% in April. On a monthly basis, it declined by 1.6%, its biggest monthly dip so far this year.

The mining data published on Thursday were more dire. Mining production fell by 3.6% year on year in July, far undershooting the Bloomberg consensus forecast of a 0.2% contraction.

Platinum group metals (PGM) production led the way with a 10.4% decline, underscoring the woes of a sector that has seen the record prices and earnings of two years...

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