The dialogue's first phase is proceeding without opposition, but the format is unlikely to achieve 'national consensus'.

In December 2021, at the height of the war between Ethiopia's federal government and Tigrayan forces, authorities established a National Dialogue Commission to resolve differences of opinion on fundamental issues and forge a 'national consensus'. The commission has three years to accomplish these goals.

The Federal Parliament appointed 11 commissioners in February 2022, and in May 2023 a National Advisory Council was set up. The commission has now embarked on one of the most important phases of any national dialogue -- participant and agenda selection.

To deal with the major drivers of conflict in Ethiopia, the process must involve key actors across the political divide -- but is that happening?

The commission has classified Ethiopians into nine categories for the purpose of choosing participants and agenda items for the national plenary. These are "people with a discernible livelihood", women, youth, self-help organisations, community leaders, public servants, teachers, artisans, and the business community.

Seven civil society and community organisations and government agencies will help the commission identify 50 representatives of the nine categories from every woreda (municipality). That means every woreda will be represented by 450 participants at the dialogue's zone-level conferences. They will select agenda items and...