The Absa Purchasing Managers' Index sank over 4 points in September as the level of rolling blackouts intensified, fuel prices spiked and demand sagged in the EU and UK. Worryingly, the business activity sub-index averaged 43.3 in the third quarter (Q3) compared to 48.1 in Q2. This suggests manufacturing output contracted in the quarter, a bad sign for the overall gross domestic product GDP read for the period.

The Absa PMI posted a 4.1 point decline in September to 45.4, sinking deeper into negative territory below the neutral 50 mark. After the manufacturing sector's performance drove better-than-expected GDP growth of 0.6% in Q2, it appears that output fell in Q3 -- a signal that the wider economy probably contracted in the quarter.

The PMI's business activity index waved a big red flag, crumbling by 8.1 points to 41.9.

"This index was extremely volatile in the third quarter. Compared to August, there was a step-up in load-shedding during September," Absa said.

"For the entire third quarter, the business activity index averaged 43.3, down from an average of 48.1 in the second quarter. The move lower would be consistent with a quarterly contraction in actual manufacturing output. If this materialises, it will weigh on overall GDP growth momentum in the third quarter."

Indeed, as manufacturing was the main driver of the paltry growth of 0.6% that the economy posted in Q2, this reversal could see GDP contract for the period.

Other data for Q3, which ended on 30 September, also points to a slowing or contracting economy. Manufacturing output rose 2.3% year on year in July after climbing 5.9% in...