South Africa: KZN ANC Rejects Poll Suggesting Loss to IFP-DA Coalition Next Year

analysis

Despite the release of a poll suggesting that an IFP-DA coalition will win more votes than the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal in next year's general election, the party's provincial leader maintains the party is 'unstoppable'.

ANC KwaZulu-Natal leader Sboniso Duma says there is no way his party will lose the province to a coalition between the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and Democratic Alliance (DA) in next year's election.

Duma was speaking on the sidelines of the ANC's 2019 provincial election manifesto review at Pietermaritzburg's Harry Gwala Stadium on Sunday, which was packed to capacity.

A poll conducted by the Social Research Foundation (SRF) found that the ruling party could lose the province in the 2024 general election to an IFP-DA coalition. The SRF's website says it was founded in 2021, the same year its chairperson, Dr Frans Cronje, left the Institute of Race Relations.

After polling 2,434 voters, the SRF predicted that the ANC would win 40% of the vote if voter turnout was 66% and would do even worse if the turnout dropped below 50%. In the 2019 elections, voter turnout in the province was 66.15%. In the 2021 local government elections, turnout was only 48.2%.

The poll suggested that with a 66% turnout the IFP will win 26% and the DA 18%, meaning the two parties, who are already working together in multiple coalitions across the country, will have a combined...

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