The ANC would get 43% to 45% of the national vote if an election were held now, three polls show.

An Ipsos poll suggests that ANC support is 43% of SA's registered voters, while a trifecta of polls released in the past fortnight predicted a loss for the governing party if an election were held now.

A Social Research Foundation (SRF) poll released last Friday suggests that ANC support had declined to 45% from 52% between July and October (on a 66% voter turnout), while The Brenthurst Foundation found the ANC would get 43% (on a high turnout) and 45% (on a low turnout), averaging at 41%.

Load shedding, a cost-of-living crisis and joblessness are the most significant factors that cast a shadow over the governing party's chances of retaining power after the 2024 election.

The polls all asked how representative samples of voters would cast their ballot if an election were held the next day. Polls are not predictions but sentiments in the run-up to the general election, which is likely to be held between May and August next year.

As election campaigns get into gear, the picture will change, says Ipsos public affairs director Dr Mari Harris. The Ipsos face-to-face poll of 3,600 people, the largest of the three, was in the field in June and July,...