The ANC is in a corner here, and when politicians feel they are cornered, they instinctively reach for the cookie jar.

My guess is that President Cyril Ramaphosa, amid a long-view defence of ANC performance, will make two important announcements and two important promises in his State of the Nation Address (Sona) on Thursday, 8 February.

The two important announcements will be the new CEO of Transnet and the 2024 elections date. The two important promises will be the continuation of the Covid-era unemployment grant, currently scheduled to end in March 2025, and the implementation of the National Health Insurance (NHI) system.

This guess is not a huge punt from left field; I think it is pretty widely speculated that these will be some of the focus issues. It also stands to reason: the ANC is in a corner here, and when politicians feel they are cornered, they instinctively reach for the cookie jar.

That the party is in a corner is also pretty obvious, but perhaps the underlying reasons are misunderstood. Because of its huge support base, the ANC's proportion of the vote is very highly correlated with voter turnout. Total voting-age population turnout in the past three general elections has declined from about 60% in 2009 to 58% in 2014 and to just below 50% in 2019. This is...