South Africa: Searching for Creative Solutions Beyond Coalitions After 29 May Elections

analysis

With national unity (and the much-vaunted social compact) somewhat dead in the water, a collective approach to rescuing the country could provide a game-changing sentiment shift in a way that a more traditional coalition might struggle.

To say that South Africa's 29 May national elections are the most consequential since 1994 is an understatement. With broad-based failure across multiple measurements, the salvation of the state is now in the hands of an increasingly frustrated and politically fragmented electorate.

Since most polls now put the ANC at below 50%, the permutations of and ramifications from a possible coalition government will make or break the country.

With the publication of the latest Brenthurst Foundation poll alongside a variety of others, the ANC would need to perform something of a political miracle to muster 50% plus one to retain unfettered power.

Although not impossible - should the party run a well-resourced and above-expectation campaign which motivates its splintering support base to return to the fold - it still has a chance to stave off its most serious challenge since the dawn of democracy.

However, with fewer than three months before voting and if polls hold at their current levels, the ANC will lose overall control. The significance of this will extend throughout all avenues of governance in the country.

Most analyses of this scenario conclude with a coalition led by the ANC as the most likely outcome.

Given that...

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