Namibians Express Confidence in Elections, but Weakening Trust in Electoral Commission

9 October 2024
Afrobarometer (Accra)
By Nyasha Mpani and Shannon Van Wyk-Khosa

Trust in election management body has dropped by 29 percentage points over the past decade.

Key findings

  • Three-fourths (74%) of Namibians express a preference for electing the country's leaders through regular, open, and honest elections.
  • But fewer than half (45%) of citizens say they trust the Electoral Commission of Namibia (ECN), including just 16% who say they trust it "a lot." o The public's trust in the ECN is down from a peak of 74% in 2014, a 29-percentage- point decline over the past decade. o Namibians' trust in their electoral management body surpasses the Southern African Development Community average of 41%. o Namibians express greater trust in the ECN than in opposition political parties (35%) and Parliament (37%) but less than in the army (56%), the police (56%), and the courts (52%).
  • Two-thirds (66%) of respondents believe the last national election, held in 2019, was largely free and fair. o Citizens who trust the ECN are 11 percentage points more likely to see the 2019 election as generally free and fair than those who don't trust the ECN (72% vs. 61%).
  • Nine out of 10 Namibians (90%) say they feel free to vote for their preferred candidates without feeling pressured.

On 27 November 2024, Namibians will head to the polls to choose a new president and a new corps of parliamentarians in the country's seventh election since independence. The 2024 general election is widely seen as a critical moment for the country's democratic development: During the previous election, in 2019, the ruling SWAPO party lost its two-thirds legislative majority for the first time since 1994, while the party's presidential candidate, the late President Hage Geingob, saw his share of the vote decline from 87% in 2014 to just 56% (Smith & van Wyk, 2019).

The 2019 election was also marked by a variety of challenges, including the lack of a voter verifiable paper audit trail, the loss of some electronic voting machines, limited communication from the Electoral Commission of Namibia (ECN) about these issues, questions about campaign financing, and low voter turnout, especially among young people (Commonwealth, 2019).

While declining to nullify the election results, the Namibian Supreme Court in 2020 ruled that the use of electronic voting machines without a voter verified paper audit trail is unconstitutional, as a paper trail is indispensable to electoral transparency, credibility, and verifiability (Namibia, 2020). As a result, the 2024 election will return to manual ballot papers (Ndeunyema, 2020).

To eliminate irregularities and start with a clean voter roll, all voters were required to re-register for the 2024 election (Matheus, 2024), a process that has focused public attention - and scepticism - on the ECN and added to the atmosphere of uncertainty as the election approaches. The requirement has raised concerns about potential voter disenfranchisement, particularly among rural and older voters who may find it difficult to access registration centres.

The proper management of elections, including independent and impartial decisions by electoral management bodies, is crucial for maintaining citizens' trust during sensitive periods in a country's democracy. Electoral conflicts often arise when election management bodies fail to earn or maintain public trust (Kotzé, 2023). Though elections are just one aspect of a healthy democracy, their mismanagement can undermine public confidence in representative government. Electoral management bodies thus play an essential role in shaping perceptions of how well a democracy functions.

As they approach the 2024 polls, how do Namibians feel about elections and the ECN? Findings from Afrobarometer's Round 10 survey show that while most Namibians support elections as the best way to choose their leaders, trust in the ECN has seen a significant decline over the past decade. Even so, a majority of citizens believe that the country's last election, in 2019, was largely free and fair, and most feel free to vote for their preference without feeling pressured.

Nyasha Mpani Nyasha Mpani is project leader for the Data for Governance Alliance Project, based at the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation.

Shannon van Wyk-Khosa Shannon is the digital portfolio manager at Afrobarometer

Read the original article on Afrobarometer.

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