An analysis by ICPAC-a designated regional climate centre by the World Meteorological Organisation shows that, after almost three years of persistent drought conditions, below-normal rainfall (reduced rainfall) is expected in most parts of the region over the next three months from March to May.
The centre's seasonal forecast is based on an analysis of universal climate model predictions from seven Global Producing Centres (GPCs) customized for the Greater Horn of Africa.
In parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and Uganda that have been most affected by the recent drought, this could be the 6th failed consecutive rainfall season, the centre said adding that the probability for drier than normal rainfall is also enhanced for parts of Rwanda, Burundi, eastern Tanzania, and western South Sudan.
For Rwanda, in the concluded agriculture season, at least 78,000 hectares of bean crop farms across the country were affected by dry spells.
On the other hand, wetter than normal conditions are expected over the cross-border areas of Ethiopia and South Sudan, north-western Kenya, and parts of central and southern Tanzania.
Warmer than normal temperatures are likely across the region, particularly over Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, north-western South Sudan, southern and north-eastern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, northern and western Kenya, and parts of south-eastern and western Tanzania.
"Even if the general conditions for the season do not look favourable, people can still take advantage of rainfall. This is why I urge all to consult our weekly and monthly forecasts which have a high degree of predictability," said Guleid Artan, ICPAC Director.
In the regions severely hit by drought, the current trends are worse than those observed during the drought of 2010-2011.
The Food Security and Nutrition Working Group (FSNWG), co-chaired by IGAD and FAO, estimates that close to 23 million people are currently food insecure in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia.
It is likely that the situation in the affected areas will intensify, the centre announced.
Considering that 11 million livestock have already died, experts have called for "an immediate scaling-up of humanitarian and risk reduction efforts while national governments, humanitarian and development actors must adopt a no-regret approach before it's too late".
Experts are saying that these prolonged and recurrent climate change induced droughts will further worsen other existing, mutually exacerbating humanitarian challenges in the region, including the ongoing hunger crisis, the impacts of Covid-19 and internal displacement.
What to watch out for in Rwanda?
Drier conditions expected in Eastern parts of Rwanda may cause crop failure and the emergence of some crop pests and diseases such as fall armyworm, a summary for decision makers designed by the centre indicates recommending to plant early maturing crops in areas expected to receive depressed rains as well as regular crop monitoring by farmers to fight pest and diseases.
Meanwhile it says that there are good crop prospects in Western, Northern and Southern parts as rains in these areas are predicted to receive 300 millimetres of rainfall and above.
Rwanda Meteorology Agency has also confirmed that from March to May, in general, there are high chances of less rainfall compared to the past long-term period of time according to the global, regional and local drivers analysed.
It says that this forecast is based on extensive analysis of the atmospheric and oceanic conditions to provide valuable information for planning and decision-making purposes.
March-April-May is one of the main rainy seasons in Rwanda.
The key drivers expected to influence rainfall during March to May season are the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) that is likely to remain neutral over the coming months in the Eastern Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which are likely to remain neutral during the season.
The similar years for March to May 2023 rainfall season are 2021, 2017, 2012 and 2002.
The rainfall below 300mm is expected in the eastern parts of Nyagatare and Gatsibo districts and a small portion of southern part of Kirehe district.
The rainfall between 300-400mm is expected over most parts of Eastern Province in Nyagatare and Gatsibo districts and southern parts of Kirehe district; Kicukiro district, southern parts of Gasabo and eastern parts of Nyarugenge district.
The rainfall between 400-500mm is expected in most parts of Northern, Southern and Western Provinces.
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It is expected also in western parts of Nyarugenge and in north western parts of Gasabo district.
This rainfall, which is the highest, between 500-600mm is expected in southern parts of Nyaruguru district, in Musanze and most parts of Burera districts.
It is also expected over northern parts of Nyabihu and Gakenke districts.
"The expected near normal to slightly below normal rainfall during March to May 2023 may lead to extreme weather events such as dry spells, localized flooding, landslides, strong winds and other extreme weather-related events in some parts of the country," the forecaster said.
Despite reduced rainfall in the region some countries such as Malawi and Mozambique, Cyclone Freddy toll has surpassed 300 as Mozambique counts bodies.
Malawi has reported 225 dead so far, with hundreds more injured and some still missing.
The storm killed about 27 people in Madagascar and Mozambique before lashing Mozambique a second time.
More than 80,000 people were displaced.
