The Red Sea, the most highly trafficked waterway, is a talking point of East Africa today, perhaps the entire globe of ours as well. Narratives on it are on the remaking and the way nations think about it is and should be expected to be redefined. Almost everyone, at least here in Ethiopia, irrespective of age, sex educational background, religion, started off chatting about it, immediately after a trailer on the Red Sea was aired.
The documentary, published recently, made it clear that Ethiopia has at least the soft power to regain its natural, political and legitimate rights of having direct access to the Red Sea. But sadly yet intentionally, some singled out only phrases from the lecture, used it out of context, and misinterpreted it for their own personal gains and possibly for their hidden motives.
Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea, once its county gained its independence in 1993. For thirty years, this ancient nation has been forced to be dependent on neighboring countries, especially Djibouti for its access to ports and international shipping lanes. This has been severely costly and unsustainable both to Ethiopia and the region at large, as experts say. Ethiopia's aspiration to regional economic integration, I think, and of course its plan to be a mid income country has necessitated the need to eye a direct access to sea waters-gate to the world.
Ethiopia, in its latest quest, has demanded not a free lunch, rather has pledged to offer lucrative business shares of Billion Dollars, namely its flagship project in return of what it might gain from its direct access to the busiest water routes -a win-win approach.
It short threatened no one, targeted no particular group or country, and just tabled a proposal to promote regional-multilateral economic integration. Ethiopia has not a hidden motive of waging war as some local and international media houses are trying to mislead.
Simple! Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed boldly and genuinely spoke of his government's strong desire that Ethiopia, a country of over 120 millions+, badly needs to have direct access to the Red Sea. This was the first time when PM Abiy Ahmed addressed lawmakers on matters of having direct access, the Red Sea in particular.
His words got immediate responses from both home and neighboring countries, when few stood against his request; millions favored it, citing natural and legal justifications.
Then, how on earth a country of over 120+ million condemned to be locked under siege, when distant powers from the ocean away are allowed to establish their military bases in and off the shores of the Red Sea? Can the Red Sea Form, the recently established club of states go any longer without Ethiopia's inclusion? I doubt it. How Ethiopia's plea could be taboo when it is right for other nearby and distant nations, namely the US, China, France and Germany.
Many are insisting that any Red Sea related architectures and projects have little or no chance of succeeding unless Ethiopia, one of the architects of AU, is welcomed, its regional and international roles are credited. Failure to accept Ethiopia's plea, as PM Abiy Ahmed warned, would lead the region into mistrust and conflicts.
Both old and recently sketched Red Sea related strategies and forums, including the Red Sea club of some East African and Gulf states, which has sadly turned down Ethiopia's request to join it, needs to be redefined, I think. Ethiopia's direct access to the sea outlet, whose imports and exports are entirely dependent on ports of neighboring countries, can further stabilize the entire region, help the fight against piracy and human trafficking, and enhance regional economic integration.
A matter of life and death, I think, is to have direct access to the waterways for Ethiopia. If not, the years to come, strategies and common destines both IGAD and AU are aspiring to claim by 2063 will be turned into a nightmare. As perspectives and understandings toward the waterways are fundamentally changing with geopolitics, failure to timely act will risk not only Ethiopia, but the region and the globe entirely. Mistrust of nations over how to fairly and responsibly use the waterways should be tackled either by soft powers, or any international laws. Because, failure to wisely approach claims of stallholders may result to mistrust.
But what is the motive behind the Red Sea Forum- a club of states which has refused Ethiopian's pleas to join? And don't you wonder why Ethiopia is denied to join it? And why are some daring to deny the quest of Ethiopia and Ethiopians to have direct access to sea outlets when dozens of distant super powers are enjoying their military presence along the coastal regions of East Africa? Is there any nearby and distant group or government conspiring against Ethiopia, East Africa entirely?
I think Ethiopia has been excluded from the forum intentionally. But given its irreplaceable roles to regional and global issues of security and counter terrorism efforts, such as its peace keeping mission and regional and global influences, its exclusion from the Red Sea Forum will endanger the heavily trafficked waterways, a safe haven will be created for any human and drug trafficking. Being a regional power, both militarily and economically, Ethiopia's inability to easily respond to any security threat may result in grave consequences.
As conflicts, such as the warring parties in Sudan, indicate existing mechanisms seem yet unable and still ineffective to tackle tensions and misunderstandings. The necessity to form all inclusive and capable clubs of regional and international significance is then can't be compromised, including guaranteeing Ethiopia's request to have a direct and sustained access to sea outlets.
Its formal appeal has been turned down by the newly established geopolitical architecture which was formed in 2019 by the Gulf and the Horn of African countries, which Ethiopia questions its sustainability, is warned the forum is against the aspiration of Africa to create a far united and strong Africa by 2063. The forum is made of eight countries, picking Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea, Egypt, Somali from the Horn regions, that of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen from the Gulf States.
Ethiopia would have a lot to contribute for the common agenda and destiny of both the Horn and the Gulf states and beyond, and its exclusion will definitely impact the region negatively, at least in the distant years.
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Because of its strategic importance competitions with no doubt will go intense as it has been over the last five years. The need to employ soft power, the use of diplomatic exchanges, and all inclusive regional bilateral and multilateral agreements are of irreplaceable significance for Africa to prosper.
The Red Sea Forum, as my reading has proven to me, from its onset aimed at excluding Ethiopia. At some point, the draft boldly noted its hidden motive not to include Ethiopia without naming it. It dictates that no landlocked country can be accepted, international sea laws are not against, though. In fact, the draft writer himself, and then many others warned that excluding Ethiopia -the regional power-would be not only costly, but gravely dangerous.
Fortunately, some neighboring countries have positively responded to Ethiopia's request of having direct access to the Sea port, many people in the Horn and beyond are in support of economic integration- a win- win approach. Thousands cheered regional and continental togetherness, yet few others are acting negatively as if militarily threatened.
Right now, Ethiopia is demanding a direct access for economic reasons, and it definitely needs access which is sustainable, and economic integration is what the region needs the most for the Horn and beyond to be stable and prosperous.
BY AHMED MOHAMMED
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD FRIDAY 27 OCTOBER 2023
